Key Points:
Expected Action:
Forward Guidance:
Open-ended guidance likely, emphasizing a data-dependent approach.Chair Powell could hint at a possible pause in early 2025.Economic Backdrop:
November employment and inflation data suggest the Fed can proceed with a cut.Persistent inflation risks point to a slower easing cycle ahead.Dot Plot Outlook:
Potential upward revision in the 2025 median dot to 3.625% and 2026 to 3.125%.Implies 75bp of cuts in 2025 and 50bp in 2026, moderating from earlier projections.Conclusion:
Credit Agricole expects the December FOMC to deliver a well-anticipated 25bp cut, accompanied by hawkish messaging. Forward guidance could highlight a cautious stance, suggesting a slower and more measured easing path in 2025.
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