Odds of a 50 basis point rate cut slip to 55% ...Middle East

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Odds of a 50 basis point rate cut slip to 55%
What a day this is turning out to be.The implied odds of a 50 bps were almost 70% yesterday but have slipped back to 55% in a steady grind. The market just doesn't know what's coming but there is clearly some anxiety today about under-delivering. That's led to a dollar rally and a selloff in bonds.I think November pricing is even more interesting right now as it's pegged right at 75 bps. So if you get 25 today and a dovish bent, then that's not far off. Alternatively, you could get 50 today and that looks underpriced for the possibility of 50 again in a front-loading. Overall though, 75 for November looks about right.Going out to Sept 2025, pricing is for 236 bps, which is down from 245 bps

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