What is the Sahm rule and why it matters ...Middle East

Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook spoke today and highlighted that unemployment is at a low level.Objectively, it's true:But I want to highlight the extreme right-hand side of the chart because of the Sahm rule. it's named after economist Claudia Sahm and is an economic indicator aiming to identify a recession sooner. The rule states that a recession is likely underway if the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by at least 0.5 percentage points above its lowest point in the previous 12 months.The lowest point in the last 12-months is July 2023 at 3.5% and it's currently at 4.0% (though the three-month average is still at 3.9%).Historically, this is the tipping

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What is the Sahm rule and why it matters ...Middle East

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