Why this could be just the beginning for the downturn in jobs ...Middle East

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Before today's non-farm payrolls report, I noted that the low estimate in the Refinitiv survey was from Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon and asked him why. One of the things he highlighted was the softening National Federation of Independent Businesses survey of hiring intentions.Despite generally strong seasonal biases in the April non-farm payrolls report, the data was weak at +175K vs +243K expected (Shepherdson was at +150K). If the NFIB survey proves to be a good forecaster, there is still much more weakness in jobs to come.Historically, cracks in the jobs market tend to accelerate quickly as well. Rises in the unemployment rate have historically run much higher once we get the kind of 0.5 p

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Why this could be just the beginning for the downturn in jobs ...Middle East

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