The dot plot is overrated but even the minute details will matter this time ...Middle East

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The dot plot is overrated but even the minute details will matter this time
In December, the Fed released a dot plot that showed 75 basis points is rate cuts in 2024. At the time, that seemed hawkish relative to the 150 bps the market was pricing in.Now it's the opposite. Markets are priced for 69 bps and when you take out roughly 15 bps in tail risks, I'd say the market is around 55 bps. It's a strong signal that the Fed median dot will come down to 50 bps.One thing to note is -- as Michael Brown highlights today -- the dot plot is far from predictive. At the start of 2022, the dots showed rates would be at 3.0% now.That will be something to keep in mind when the Fed decision is made. Just because the Fed is thinking 50 basis points, doesn't mean you have to as wel

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