US CPI data release: will declines be enough to reassure the Fed? ...Middle East

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US CPI data release: will declines be enough to reassure the Fed?
Both Commerzbank and Société Générale are wary of the US CPI data for January due later today. Analysts at both both banks say the expected declines may not be enough to reassure the Fed that inflation is on a sustained downward path. Société GénéraleFed officials want more evidence inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2% before they start easing. Tuesday’s US CPI report should only marginally add to that evidence, as we expect core inflation to ease by only 0.1pp to 3.8% YoY (0.3% MoM) while we forecast a decrease in headline to 2.9% YoY from 3.4%.Commerzbank We expect the core rate, i.e. consumer prices excluding energy and food, to rise by 0.3% from the previous month and thus at t

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