Mellman: Different questions, different projections ...Middle East

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Mellman: Different questions, different projections
Last week we warned about misleading crosstabs. This week’s warning is about different questions on the same topic producing different answers and divergent interpretations.  Compared to forecasting elections you’d think it might be easy to determine whether people are going to spend more or less this holiday season. It turns out to be rather difficult. So difficult that two different questions on the same topic yielded not just different answers, but contradictory interpretations.  Gallup offered an upbeat assessment. Last week they unveiled poll results showing Americans not only predicted they would spend record high amounts this season, but also revised that estimate upward i

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