Traditional recession indicators have misfired — are we in for a sneaky recession? ...Middle East

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Traditional recession indicators have misfired — are we in for a sneaky recession?
The old joke is that "an economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today." It is particularly fitting today. A steady string of positive economic surprises during the first half of 2023 has led forecasters to reconsider their prior calls for a U.S. recession this year. Resilient consumers, stubbornly tight labor markets and sustained corporate pricing power have forced the Federal Reserve to push policy rates to a 22-year high. Shifting narratives surrounding the state of the U.S. economy, and the apparent failure of traditional recession indicators to accurately predict an economic downturn, have complicated the task of fo

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