Savvy guys like Matt Yglesias, the newsletter writer and former Vox and Slate blogger, sometimes critique bad political punditry by pointing out that it often boils down to saying things like, If politician [x] wants to win, they should adopt all of my preferred policies. It’s a fair point: A lot of bad electoral analysis from across the political spectrum does follow that pattern. But of course, even savvy guys sometimes make related fallacious arguments, like, Candidate [x] pulled off this victory because they adopted the messaging strategy I currently deem the savviest. Or even, This specific, overdetermined local election result exposes a fatal flaw in the strategy of the left/progressiv
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