The military build-up in Ukraine is creating the possibility for a major war. However, conflict remains unlikely for the simple reason that it is not in the self-interest of any protagonist. Nevertheless, that may not be enough. All countries have a lot to lose from a war, and unpredictability is an important factor as a series of unknown variables will make it nearly impossible to exercise escalation control and calculate the consequences. However, the assumption that states always act rationally is deeply flawed. The rational unitary actor We commonly and incorrectly assume that states are unitary actors – a single political entity t
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