When we caught up at the United Nations climate change conference, known as COP31, currently underway in Antalya, Turkey, he offered a blunt analysis: the war in Iran has unleashed a structural shift. "I don't see any credible pathway in which the world of energy is going back where it was before the Iran War," he said on Nov. 13.
But Birol says the coming structural changes in energy will have even wider implications, shaping economic and geopolitical outcomes. He cites economic diversification plans from oil-exporting countries, new trade partnerships, and investments in new technologies like next-generation batteries and nuclear power. All of which comes with an eye toward safeguarding energy supply from supply disruptions. "Instead of importing energy, they are deciding to build energy,” he told me.
The COP31 presidency is pushing countries to pledge to rely on electricity for 35% of their final energy consumption by 2035. The world’s electricity grid still relies on fossil fuels to some degree—more or less so depending on the area—but today it’s typically cleaner than most fossil fuels. It will be even cleaner as renewable deployment continues.
“Two years ago, I said we are entering the age of electricity,” Birol told me. “I can tell you today, when I look at today's numbers, we are in the age of electricity."
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