Sometimes (most times), baseball can be a very cruel sport.
Three seasons ago (2024), Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran slashed .285/.342/.492 (132 wRC+) with 21 home runs and 34 stolen bases en route to a 6.9 fWAR season. That earned him an All-Star nod plus a top-10 finish in the AL MVP race, which … yeah. That’s an MVP-vote-getting type of season.
Two seasons ago (2025), Duran took a step backwards, hitting five fewer homers, swiping ten fewer bags, and slashing a more pedestrian (albeit not awful) .256/.332/.442 (113 wRC+). However, with his defense, legs, and second consecutive 40+ double season, Duran was still worth an impressive 4.0 fWAR. Not nearly MVP status, but well above average. Borderline All-Star stuff.
Last season (2026), the cruelty really stepped in. Not just for Duran, but for the Red Sox, who probably wish they had cashed in on all that value when the getting was still good. In 608 plate appearances across 151 games, Duran slashed just .207/.266/.361 (69 wRC+). He still went 20/21 on homers and stolen bases, respectively, but his overall offensive contributions ranked second-worst in MLB among all qualified hitters. At the end of the day, it was a 0.5 fWAR season. What. A. Collapse.
Now here’s where things get interesting.
Duran, 30, has two years of control remaining via arbitration. And because of all those homers and stolen bases and general early-career success, he’s projected to earn some real money this time around: $11.1 million in 2027, with something greater than that awaiting in 2028.
So the Red Sox, who already have younger or better (or both) options available across the outfield (Wilyer Abreu, Cedanne Rafaela, Roman Anthony), are very open to trading him. In fact, they have been for about a year, according to most rumors.
And that brings me to, uh, “us.”
The 2027 Chicago Cubs, as you know, have lost FOUR outfielders to free agency this offseason: their two starters, Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ, and their two primary backups/part-timers, Michael Conforto and Tyrone Taylor.
While I will continue to hold out hope for a reunion with Seiya Suzuki, or perhaps a more exciting trade for someone more established (Steven Kwan? Fernando Tatis Jr.?), the prevailing wisdom seems to suggest that the Cubs will focus the bulk of their offseason expenditure(s) on starting pitching. In other words, we all need to aim lower for the outfield if we want to guess right.
Enter the Red Sox and Jarren Duran? Yes, according to Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic.
Boston Red Sox’s Jarren Duran | Jim Rassol-Imagn ImagesJarren Duran As a Cubs Target?
Here’s what they had to say:
Duran, 30, no longer fits in the Red Sox’s crowded outfield, but even with his struggles last season, he hit 20 homers, stole 21 bases in 25 attempts and played above-average defense in left field.
The San Diego Padres have long had interest in Duran. The Seattle Mariners also could show interest but probably will aim higher in their quest to replace Randy Arozarena. The Arizona Diamondbacks, short on left-handed hitters, are another potential fit. Ditto for the Chicago Cubs, who face the losses of free-agent outfielders Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ but might want Duran if he is non-tendered.
That’s a light mention, no doubt, but it’s just enough to give us a reason to dig in. What I want to discuss: Does Duran fit the Cubs? Is there any reason to expect a bounceback? Could he contribute even if he doesn’t return to form? What’s the deal with that “other” way to acquire him I alluded to in the headline?
First, on the fit, that’s pretty easy. Yes. In a world in which the Cubs are aiming lower for the outfield, you might as well go after someone who’s still relatively young (he just turned 30) who has had big success in the past (he had two really solid seasons, one of which was fantastic). In fact, I’d argue that this is something the Cubs seem to do a lot to varying degrees of success: Cody Bellinger, Michael Conforto, Chas McCormick, Dylan Carlson, Clint Frazier, Mike Tauchman, etc.
Again, some worked out big, some were just nice-to-haves, some we didn’t see at all, but the Cubs do seem to target formerly very successful players or former top prospects on the positional side every year. Duran fits that archetype.
He’s also not horrible defensively. Over the last three seasons, he’s got 20 DRS and 5 OAA in left field, fifth- and sixth-best among left fielders, respectively. I bring that up because this Cubs front office clearly prioritizes defense. If he were a zero or worse with the glove, I don’t think he’d fit at all.
But what about a bounceback? Well, that’s obviously much more challenging to predict, and there are certainly a lot of concerns that he will not return to form. Indeed, that is without a doubt the most likely outcome with just a quick peek at all the blue on his Statcast page. But we can put more specific numbers behind that, too: For example, this season (2026), his line drive dropped to well below average, his launch angle sweet spot cratered, his infield fly ball rate increased, he swung at more pitches out of the zone, and he posted the highest whiff rate of his career.
On the flip side, and for the sake of argument, his .252 BABIP this past season was WAY below his .321 career mark, indicating some bad luck was involved. And while you might expect that to dip a little alongside his drop in hard-hit rate, his barrel rate last season was actually above his career mark and right in line with his MVP-vote-getting 2024 campaign.
The only real “good” sign is that Duran does not seem to have suffered some sort of physical setback. For example, his bat speed was UP last year, ditto his fast-swing rate. Likewise, his zone-swing rate was better than his career marks and his zone-contact rate was still much better than average. Again, I think he was mostly bad, but also probably a little unlucky. It can (and, indeed, was) both.
Beyond that, Duran has some fairly significant lefty/righty splits that could work in his favor as a part-time player on the Cubs. Namely, his performance against righties throughout his career (115 wRC+, higher walk rate, lower strikeout rate, solidly above-average exit velo, above-average barrel rate and hard-hit rates) could pair well enough opposite someone like, say, Matt Shaw, who has always been significantly better against lefties (130 wRC+) than righties (82 wRC+). The same can be said for Pedro Ramirez, though I suspect he’ll get better against righties as he gets more time to feel out switch-hitting in the big leagues.
Needless to say, his past pedigree, solid defense, potential for a bounceback, and lefty/righty splits actually make him fit the Cubs fairly well … as a low-cost, less-exciting outfield contributor (it’s all relative … he’s not Seiya Suzuki).
And that brings us to the acquisition cost.
Given how bad his season was, how evidently eager his team is to trade him and the fact that he’s projected to earn very real money in 2027 ($11.1 million), Duran shouldn’t be too costly to acquire. And with former Cubs executive Craig Breslow running the show in Boston, a deal shouldn’t be hard to line up. But the Cubs might not even have to go there.
From that same article in The Athletic, Sammon and Rosenthal write: “Knowing Duran’s projected salary in arbitration is about $11 million, interested clubs might dare the Red Sox to non-tender him and make him a free agent.”
In other words, the Cubs could just call the Red Sox’s bluff, hope he’s non-tendered, and then try to sign him for only money later this offseason.
MLB’s tender deadline is just eight days away. So the Red Sox have a serious decision on their hands. They could find a deal between now and then, taking whatever they can get to get out of owing him ~$11.1 million … or they can roll the dice on a team still wanting to trade for him after that contract is locked in. Or they can non-tender him. In any case, I can see the Cubs showing some interest for all the reasons above. And if the Cubs really won’t do something more exciting offensively, you may as well root for them to get a guy who HAS been very impactful before. Not that you should expect the 2024 version to show up.
***
As an aside, but a relevant one: There are some serious questions about his personality and clubhouse presence, which is absolutely something this Cubs front office takes seriously. He has clashed with his own teammates, fans (sometimes understandable, sometimes very much not), and he has gotten into trouble on social media (more than once), with fans and industry types alike.
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