Infielder Luis Arraez has long been baseball’s best contact hitter, as well as one of the most difficult players to value. In 4,188 career plate appearances, he has an excellent .316 batting average and an impressive total of 1,213 hits, including two seasons with at least 200 hits. He’s also the rare player to walk more often than he strikes out. Arraez has a career walk rate of 6.3% compared to a strikeout rate of 5.8%. All told, he has a career slash line of .316/.360/.414 with a 116 wRC+, indicating he’s been 16% better than average.
The downsides to Arraez’ contact-focused approach are just as apparent. He offers no power, having just 42 career home runs and peaking at ten in 2023 with the Marlins. His career .098 isolated power is well below league average, which usually sits around .150 to .165. He doesn’t walk much, so his offense depends almost exclusively on the hit tool. Before this season, Arraez was also regarded as a poor defender. From 2019-25, he was worth -55 Outs Above Average across all four infield spots, with second base and first base being his most-played positions.
This season was more of the same at the plate, though it came with substantial improvements in the field. Having signed a one-year, $12MM deal with the Giants with the promise of staying at second base, Arraez came through with +12 OAA and a +10 rating from Fielding Run Value. His -4 rating from Defensive Runs Saved still wasn’t great, but it was without question the most defensive value Arraez had provided in a single season. When you factor in his 110 wRC+ in 655 plate appearances between the Giants and Phillies, Arraez was worth 4.1 wins above replacement according to FanGraphs.
That’s an impressive platform season, and it should enable Arraez to earn a multi-year deal at a higher average annual value this time around. We at MLBTR rank him at No. 15 on our Top 50 Free Agents list and project him for a three-year contract worth $48MM. The question is where Arraez will sign. The total guarantee is light enough that the majority of teams can theoretically afford him. The Giants have more pressing needs and will be fringe contenders at best in the next couple of years, so a multi-year reunion won’t be in the cards. Still, a number of contenders could use some help at the keystone.
Phillies
A deadline trade to the Phillies helped Arraez by rendering him ineligible for a qualifying offer. However, he also fell into a slump with his new club, batting .278/.309/.369 with an 82 wRC+ in 191 plate appearances after the trade. Arraez suffered a right ankle sprain on September 24th and had to be helped off the field. He was left off the Phillies’ roster for the Wild Card Series, which they lost in three games to the Braves.
Philadelphia is deep in win-now mode and has a star-powered, but aging and strikeout-prone lineup. Arraez would be a steady, less strikeout-prone complement to the heavy hitters. Third baseman Alec Bohm is now a free agent, and fellow infielder Bryson Stott, who moved to the hot corner after Arraez was acquired, is down to his last year of club control. Stott was a serviceable defender in 367 2/3 innings at third base, so perhaps the Phillies can keep him there and re-sign Arraez for the keystone. That might be a better alignment than Stott at second and the light-hitting Otto Kemp at third, whom RosterResource currently projects as the starter.
The team already has a lot of long-term contracts on the books, though Arraez would stand alongside Cristopher Sánchez as two of the cheaper ones, according to MLBTR’s Payroll Tracker. You could argue the outfield is a more pressing need, but at the very least, Arraez is a familiar quantity and a dependable middle-of-the-order bat.
Tigers
Detroit stumbled to a 76-86 record and fourth place in the AL Central after two straight seasons of reaching the Division Series. The Tigers got a 98 wRC+ out of the second base spot, which was somehow good enough for tenth-best in the league. Gleyber Torres had a 111 wRC+ in a half-season, missing the remainder with a left oblique strain. He’s now a free agent. Hao-Yu Lee and Zach McKinstry combined for over 300 plate appearances as second basemen. Lee underwhelmed defensively and is best used as a utility player. McKinstry was awful at the plate and is a non-tender candidate.
The keystone is a clear spot for the Tigers to upgrade as they hope to reinforce their lineup for a return to the playoffs. They probably won’t re-sign Torres, who was about on par with Arraez at the plate without the same defensive value. Detroit’s long-term books are pretty clear outside of Kevin McGonigle, Colt Keith, and Framber Valdez. Adding Arraez at a $16MM AAV would address an area of need and still leave the Tigers with $36.9MM to spend before they match last year’s $202MM cash payroll.
Yankees
New York is more of a dark horse landing spot. On the one hand, the Yankees got just an 89 wRC+ out of their second basemen this year. That was thanks to an underwhelming effort from Jazz Chisholm Jr. and even worse numbers from fill-ins José Caballero and Anthony Volpe. They declined to make a qualifying offer to Chisholm, so he figures to sign elsewhere on a short-term, opt out-laden deal. As far as the Yankees’ incumbent options go, playing Volpe full-time at second would be a detriment to the offense. Luis Garcia Jr. would be a defensive liability if manager Aaron Boone tries him out at second, as he’s hinted before.
The team’s financial situation makes an Arraez signing a bit less likely. The team has a lot of long-term money committed to Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, and others. No one doubts that they can afford Arraez, but the bullpen and third base are arguably bigger areas of need than the keystone. From a baseball perspective, though, Arraez makes a lot of sense. His contact-oriented style is the antithesis of the Yankees’ high-strikeout, home run-focused lineup, so he’d provide some badly needed diversification. He’d also form a solid defensive tandem with incumbent shortstop George Lombard Jr., provided Arraez can keep up this year’s defensive improvement.
Who will sign Luis Arraez? Cast your vote in the poll below.
Who will sign Luis Arraez?
Phillies Tigers Yankees A different team Vote Vote to see results A different team 67% (16) Phillies 13% (3) Yankees 13% (3) Tigers 8% (2)Total votes: 24
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Photo courtesy of Brett Davis, Imagn Images
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