Thursday night gives you one game, a 10-point spread, and a rookie quarterback making his first start. That combination makes for a strange pick’em slate, and strange slates are where you find edges. These are my NFL DFS picks for Jaguars vs Ravens on BN Fantasy, starting with Trevor Lawrence and Derrick Henry.
Kickoff is 7:15 p.m. Central at M&T Bank Stadium. Jacksonville is about a 10-point favorite, and the total is 39.5, one of the lowest of the season. The books expect a slow, low-scoring game. Keep that in mind on every pick below.
How BN Fantasy Pick’em Works
BN Fantasy is not a salary-cap game. You do not build a lineup under a budget. You pick between two and eight players, and for each one you choose More or Less than the stat projection the app sets.
Hit every leg and you get paid, with payouts up to 100x depending on how many picks you make. It is app only, free on iOS and Android, open to players 18 and older, and live in select states.
New users can grab a 100% Deposit Match up to $100 right now.
A quick note before the picks. These are leans, not the app’s exact projections, because those numbers move during the day. Check the line in the app before you lock anything in.
Sep 14, 2025; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry (22) runs the ball during the second quarter at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-Imagn ImagesDerrick Henry: More Rushing Attempts
This is my favorite pick on the board. Baltimore is down to Joe Fagnano, an undrafted rookie who went 10 of 21 for 91 yards and an interception after coming in at Buffalo on Sunday. Lamar Jackson is on injured reserve with a thumb injury, and Tyler Huntley is out for the year.
So what does Jesse Minter do? He hands it to Henry. A lot.
I like attempts more than yards here. Jacksonville just held Indianapolis to seven points, and every defender in the building knows the ball is going to Henry. Yards could be hard to find. Carries should not be. The one risk is game script. If the Jaguars jump out to a big lead, Baltimore may have to throw. But with this quarterback situation, I think the Ravens stay patient longer than most teams would.
Trevor Lawrence: Less Passing Yards
Lawrence was great on Sunday. He went 10 of 14 for 210 yards and three touchdowns against Indianapolis and left early in the fourth quarter with the game long over. Look at the attempts, though. Fourteen.
That is what happens when Jacksonville gets ahead. The Jaguars ran for a season-best 183 yards in that win, and they will want to do the same thing tonight against a Baltimore team that cannot keep pace through the air.
A 10-point favorite with a 39.5 total does not usually need its quarterback to throw for 280. If the app sets Lawrence’s yardage line off his season numbers, I am taking Less.
(EDITOR'S NOTE: Resubmitted with alternate crop.) Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) looks to throw during the second quarter of an NFL football matchup at EverBank Stadium, Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026, in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jaguars defeated the Titans 41-7, capturing the AFC South title. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]Joe Fagnano: Less Passing Yards
This one should not need much explaining. Fagnano is making his first NFL start, he was wearing an ankle brace in practice earlier this week, and he is facing a Jacksonville front that had four sacks on Sunday.
The app will probably set a low line for him. I would still go Less. Baltimore’s plan is to protect him, not to ask him to win the game, and that means short throws and a lot of Henry.
Brenton Strange: More Receptions
When Lawrence does throw, Strange is one of the easiest targets in this offense to project. He had a 46-yard catch against Indianapolis, and earlier this season he caught seven passes for 95 yards in the win at Cincinnati.
Receptions are steadier than yards, especially for a tight end in a game where the passing volume may be light. Baltimore is also without safety Jaylinn Hawkins, which thins out the coverage over the middle. Take More on catches if the line sits around three or four.
Zay Flowers: More Receptions
Flowers lines up in the slot for Baltimore, and a rookie quarterback under pressure tends to look for the quickest, safest throw on the field. That is usually the slot receiver.
I would not touch his yardage line. Deep shots are not going to be part of this game plan. But volume on short throws? That I believe in. If the app sets his receptions number in a reasonable spot, take More.
Nov 16, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers (4) runs against Cincinnati Bengals safety Dax Hill (23) during the first quarter at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY SportsThe Tuten Question: Chris Rodriguez Jr.
Bhayshul Tuten ran for 104 yards and caught a touchdown against the Colts, but he is questionable with ankle and foot injuries and did not practice all week. Liam Coen called him a likely game-time decision.
If Tuten is ruled out, Chris Rodriguez Jr. gets the work, and More on his rushing attempts becomes one of the best plays on the slate. A big favorite that wants to run, with one healthy lead back, is exactly the setup you want for an attempts prop.
Do not play it until you see the inactives about 90 minutes before kickoff. If Tuten is active, skip both backs and stick with the picks above.
How I Would Build My Jaguars vs Ravens Entry
For a two-pick entry, I want Henry More rushing attempts and Fagnano Less passing yards. Both come from the same idea, Baltimore protecting a rookie, and I trust that idea more than anything else in this game.
For a bigger entry, add Lawrence Less passing yards and Strange More receptions. If Tuten sits, Rodriguez More attempts slides right in.
Flowers is the higher-variance leg. Keep him out of your safest entries and use him when you are chasing a bigger payout.
BN Fantasy Jaguars vs Ravens FAQ
What is the BN Fantasy promo for Jaguars vs Ravens?
New users can get a 100% Deposit Match up to $100 on BN Fantasy.
How many players do I need to pick on BN Fantasy?
You pick between two and eight players and choose More or Less on each stat projection. Payouts go up to 100x depending on the entry.
Who is the Ravens’ quarterback tonight?
Undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano makes his first NFL start. Lamar Jackson is on injured reserve, Tyler Huntley is out for the season, and Jacoby Brissett is expected to start in Week 10 once his trade is final.
Is Bhayshul Tuten playing Thursday night?
He is questionable with ankle and foot injuries and is a likely game-time decision. Chris Rodriguez Jr. would lead the backfield if he sits.
What time does Jaguars vs Ravens start?
Kickoff is 7:15 p.m. Central, 8:15 p.m. Eastern, at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore.
Responsible Gambling
Single-game pick’em moves fast, and that speed is the reason to slow down before you build an entry. Pick a budget for the night and leave it alone once the game starts.
Bigger entries pay more because they are much harder to hit. Keep each entry small compared to your overall bankroll, and never try to win back a losing entry by firing a bigger one.
Use the deposit limits and time-out tools in the app if you need them. This should be a fun way to follow a Thursday night game, and if it stops being fun, take a break and reach out for help.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Responsible Gaming Resources
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