Donald Trump has received a stinging rebuke from voters in the US midterm elections.
The Democrats have taken control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives, scoring stunning victories in former Republican fortresses such as Texas, South Carolina and Kansas.
As well as reconfiguring US domestic politics, the “blue wave” which swept across the States could shape how Trump approaches foreign policy in his final two years in office – with profound consequences for households in Britain.
More unpredictable on the world stage?
The Republicans’ loss of Congress could leave Trump unable to pass legislation and hemmed in by investigations into the conduct of his administration, including allegations of corruption.
But one area where the US President retains almost exclusive control is in setting foreign policy. It is therefore possible that Trump could respond to the results by becoming more active – and potentially more unpredictable – on the world stage.
Much will depend on how Trump processes Tuesday’s defeat. Alan Mendoza, the executive director of the Henry Jackson Society think-tank, said it is still possible that the President could take a considered approach of seeking bipartisan agreement on foreign policy and other issues. “We’ll work with the Democrats,” Trump promised on Tuesday night.
But given his previous form, there is clearly a risk he could respond in a very different manner. Mendoza said Trump may pursue a “scorched earth policy” of trying to “push through whatever he wants to push through wherever he can go”. “The world could get far more turbulent if he decides to throw the US’s weight around,” he added.
Mendoza also said it is possible that Trump could “turn his attention to Cuba” and “try and topple the regime” by attacking the communist country. While such a move would send shockwaves through the Americas, it would likely have a limited impact on Britain because of our distance from Cuba and negligible trade links with the country.
Richard Foord, a Liberal Democrat MP who sits on the Commons Foreign Affairs Select Committee, told The i Paper: “While many Europeans are delighted, caution is required. Trump remains commander in chief of the US military for more than the next two years. He retains control of US foreign policy too.”
He added: “We should not celebrate Trump’s demise prematurely”.
‘The world has an opportunity’
When it comes to the areas where Trump’s response is going to be felt most by British households, it is perhaps Iran which tops the list.
Trump has acknowledged that his decision to join Israel in attacking Iran in February contributed to the Republicans defeat in these elections.
Supporters react as Democratic candidate for US Senate from Kansas Adam Hamilton gives remarks following his election victory to become the first Democrat to win Kansas since 1932. . REUTERS/Nathan Howard/File Photo“I think a part of it was Iran,” the US President said in an interview with Fox News on Tuesday night.
Iran’s decision to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to the attack has pushed up energy prices and inflation on a global scale. The war is deeply unpopular in the US, where rocketing prices at the pumps and rising inflation have flown in the face of Trump’s promise in the 2024 presidential election to cut the cost of living. Of course, it has also driven up energy bills, fuel prices and inflation here in the UK as well.
World leaders including Prime Minister Andy Burnham are keen to use the midterms to prod Trump into securing a lasting resolution to the conflict. Responding to the midterms at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Antigua and Barbuda on Wednesday, Burnham said: “President Trump has accepted the results, and I feel the world has an opportunity now to unite around the issue that is affecting us all, and that’s the cost of living.”
He went on: “That has been the issue that I have put front and centre in my first three months in Downing Street, and we’ve made moves. But I can’t get people’s cost of living pressures down until the conflict in the Middle East is resolved.”
However, there is a risk that with the midterms now out of the way, Trump could try to force an end to the conflict with further escalation. The President told Fox News: “If we have to do something large… a lot of people would like to do the heavy hit.”
If Trump doubles down on the war, then it could mean even higher energy bills and food prices in the UK.
If the conflict and disruption to energy supplies drags on into next year, it would also weigh on the public finances. That could mean that the Chancellor John Healey is forced to come back for more taxes in next autumn’s Budget to ensure Britain sticks within its fiscal rules limiting the scale of borrowing.
Ukraine and Putin
The other international crisis where Trump’s policy off the back of the midterms is likely to have the greatest impact on Britain is the war in Ukraine.
Having been humiliated at the polls and with little hope of getting his own agenda through Congress, Trump may decide that “peace” in Ukraine should be his great legacy.
The President has previously boated about the number of wars he has supposedly ended and has long coveted the Nobel Peace Prize. Last week he called Norway a “shit house country” because the Nobel committee had not yet given him the prize.
The danger for Ukraine and its European partners, including Britain, is that Trump could try to force an end to the war at any cost.
In the weeks running up to the midterms, Trump waived various sanctions on Russia and struck a deal with Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel.
The great fear in European capitals will be that Trump will continue this Putin-friendly stance by scaling back arms exports and intelligence support for Kyiv unless Ukraine agrees to an end to the conflict on terms which are largely favourable to Russia.
If Trump did take this approach, it would likely embolden Putin in the “hybrid warfare” operations which Russia is already waging across Europe. This would increase pressure on Burnham and Healey to accelerate plans to increase defence spending, which have been put off until next year’s spending review.
The Democrats have consistently been far more pro-Ukraine than Trump, and could use their majorities in both chambers of Congress to push legislation to help Kyiv. However, Trump would have the power to veto such legislation.
A two-thirds majority would be required to override the veto with support from some Republicans.
However, Foord warned that the midterms had resulted in some “very sensible Republicans” losing their seats. “Mike Turner (who lost his Congress seat in Ohio), for example, had more in common with Reagan than with Trump,” he said.
“He was an experienced Russia watcher who brought sensible views on European security to the House of Representatives, and to relations between the US and its allies. He had served previously as President of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly and Chair of the House Intelligence Committee.”
UK party politics
One other area in which the midterms could have an impact on Britain is in party politics.
Many Labour and Lib Dem MPs are elated by Trump receiving a bloody nose. On the other hand, the President’s ebbing political fortunes will give Reform UK pause for thought.
Donald Trump with Nigel Farage during a campaign rally at the Mississippi Coliseum in August 2016 during his first run for President. (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)Nigel Farage, is a long-term friend of Trump and has consciously modelled aspects of Reform’s agenda on the President’s policies. As late as Tuesday night, Farage was telling viewers of his GB News programme that pollsters predicting heavy losses for the Republicans would be proven wrong. “I don’t go with the consensus that Trump is going to get absolutely smashed,” he said.
Farage’s proximity to Trump has always been unhelpful for Reform, with polls finding that it is one of the most frequently cited concerns which voters have about the party.
Since the Iran war, Reform has been less vocal in support of Trump, and a senior party source told The i Paper that the midterm results would reinforce this “distancing”.
The source added that the results would encourage Reform to focus more on the cost of living and put the party off supporting future military interventions.
“People will punish politicians who take their off the ball, the source said. “I think it will encourage Reform to think foreign adventures are just bad.”
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