Let’s have an honest, frank conversation about the state of the Chicago Blackhawks.
There’s a lot going on. Yes, there are some elements of the Blackhawks’ recent games that have been positive. Yes, the Blackhawks have played arguably the toughest schedule in the NHL — and their next three games are against championship contenders. Yes, the Blackhawks haven’t been healthy all year — and they lost Patrick Kane on Monday night to an upper-body injury that will cost him at least the next two games in Florida.
But there’s hasn’t been — isn’t — a lot of good. That’s not good enough. And that’s the overwhelming problem at 1901 W. Madison right now.
After the loss to Colorado on Monday night, Blackhawks head coach Jeff Blashill pushed back hard against a perception that his team wasn’t competing. That they aren’t working hard every night. And I 100 percent agree with him that, with the exceptions of the Utah and Detroit games, the effort has seemingly been there.
But there’s a problem with that reality. There are three key elements to a team being successful or not: effort, talent/skill and systems/coaching.
If the Blackhawks don’t have an effort problem, then one of the other two is the core issue at hand. And that’s not good. At all.
Blackhawks head coach Jeff BlashillBlackhawks Eye Test vs. Analytics
It’s been brought up here and elsewhere a lot this season: there’s a disconnect between the analytics we can view, digest and analyze as the public and what the Blackhawks use/view/value. I will note that the Blackhawks are not unique in having their own internal data that they value as a measure of performance. But… the reliance on that data to make/support a case to stay on a course that’s seemingly heading nowhere has fans ready to storm the gates.
After Monday’s morning skate, Blashill said the Blackhawks “keep a stat internally called ‘on-puck action,’ which basically measures execution offensively and defensively.” He said the games against LA and Boston were two of the better games the Blackhawks have had in that metric over the past four years.
The Blackhawks won one of those two games. They coughed up a two-goal lead in the third period against the Bruins.
After Monday night’s loss, Blashill once again defiantly turned to his analytics to back his players.
“Chances end up 17-16, 9-9 five-on-five. We took too many penalties, 100 percent, and too many minors that were 100 percent avoidable. They scored on some tips. We didn’t as much. We competed hard. They’re a good team. They competed hard. They won the game. But it was a game I think if you take the emotion or the score out from clouding your vision, pretty even game and we lose it.”
To the contrary of those numbers, what we can see places like Natural Stat Trick tell a different story. At 5-on-5, the Avalanche had a 21-12 scoring chance advantage and 9-4 advantage in high danger chances. Natural Stat Trick had high danger chances at 9-3 after two periods at 5-on-5. The Avalanche had a 4-2 lead after two periods.
The reality of the game’s end result matches the expected goals for. Natural Stat Trick (at all strengths) had the Avalanche leading the Blackhawks 4.03 to 2.87 in that category last night. Without the late empty-net goal, the score was 4-2 — pretty much what we should have expected from the game.
Blackhawks forward Frank NazarSo where’s the crack for the Blackhawks? I talked to veteran defenseman Ian Cole after Monday’s game about the Blackhawks’ struggles against good teams. As usual, Cole gave strong, concise answers.
“Good teams, teams that have had success, they’re very consistent,” Cole said. “There’s a reason they’ve had success consistently. I think there’s times when we have great focus and playing really well and then maybe it slips, maybe it’s a mistake, whatever the case is in each individual scenario. And good teams do that, too. The two on one score. So things happen. We just need to be able to find that consistency inside of every game. And if we do that and put ourselves in a good spot, over time we’ll start to learn how to win these games.”
At this point, I’m hitting the pause button to circle back to something I wrote earlier. The three things that it takes for teams to be successful are effort, talent/skill and systems/coaching. But two significant underlying factors that impact all three of those areas that has been relevant in the Blackhawks’ losses thus far are experience and maturity.
In the first period last night, the Blackhawks sprinted to a two-goal lead. The Avalanche didn’t panic. They just put the pedal down and tied the game. In Boston, the Blackhawks sprinted to a lead. The Bruins didn’t panic. They put the pedal down and tied the game. That’s been a frequent refrain with this core group of young Blackhawks. And Cole’s second statement puts the onus on the players to get their collective stuff together and find that consistency.
“Ultimately we’re professional athletes [and] we’re judged by whether we win hockey games. That is the way it is. There’s no moral victories in this job. So we need to figure out ways to win hockey games. And whether that’s create more chances, whether that’s give up less chances — honestly, it’s probably a bit of both. I know we’ve got to do that. We’ve got to continue to get better. We’ve got to continue to grow. We’ve got to have that mindset where we’re not getting frustrated and we’re continuing to approach everyday like, ‘Hey, we have to get better.’ We have to get better in one area — in many areas. That’s really the only way out of this thing.”
So should Blashill feel some heat on his backside? Absolutely. And weaponizing stats that aren’t in line with what the rest of the world can see to back his players isn’t helping his case in the court of public opinion.
The Blackhawks have competed with teams in their weight class. After the upcoming road trip, the Blackhawks play ten games before the end of November. I would argue nine of those are against teams in their weight class (Minnesota’s a wagon, sorry folks). If we don’t start to see positive movement thru those games, the conversation will change from development to concerns about the path forward.
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