Those 12 conflicting forecasts are in the races for Alabama’s 2nd congressional district, Colorado’s 5th, Kentucky’s 6th, Michigan’s 10th, New York’s 17th, Ohio’s 7th, Pennsylvania’s 1st, Texas’ 15th and 35th, Virginia’s 1st and 5th, and Wisconsin’s 1st.
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In Colorado’s 5th district, SCB also says the race leans toward the Democratic candidate, Jessica Killin, while FNPR and ST say it leans toward Republican incumbent Rep. Jeff Crank, and DDHQ and TE rate the race as Likely Republican. The remaining five forecasters call the race a toss-up.
In Michigan’s 10th district, IE says the race tilts toward Republican Michael Bouchard, whereas DDHQ, FPO, SCB, SB, and ST all say it leans toward Democrat Christina Hines. The remaining four forecasters call it a toss-up.
In Ohio’s 7th district, RWH rates the contest between Republican incumbent Rep. Max Miller and Democrat Brian Poindexter as Tilt Republican. IE rates it as Tilt Democratic, SCB and ST as Lean Democratic, and SB as Likely Democratic. The other five forecasters call it a toss-up.
In Pennsylvania’s 1st district, TE rates the race between Republican incumbent Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick and Democrat Bob Harvie as Likely Republican, while SCB and SB say it leans Democratic, and FPO rates it Likely Democratic. The other six forecasters call the race a toss-up.
In Texas’ 35th district, SCB and ST say the race leans toward Democrat Johnny Garcia over Republican Carlos De La Cruz. TE rates the race as Likely Republican. All seven other forecasters call it a toss-up.
In Virginia’s 5th district, SCB says the race leans toward Democrat Tom Perriello. All nine other forecasters favor Republican incumbent Rep. John McGuire III—including SB and TE, which rate the race as Likely and Very Likely Republican, respectively, while the others say it leans Republican.
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TIME’s analysis reflects the forecasters’ ratings as of 7 a.m. ET, Nov. 3. Ratings describe the forecasters’ assessments of each race based on polling and fundamental assumptions, but they are not guaranteed outcomes.
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