With Republicans about to get a drubbing in the US midterms, Donald Trump is reaching for a familiar playbook – claiming the elections are being stolen. It’s unlikely he could overturn a legitimate result, but not for want of trying.
The Republicans look all but certain to lose the House of Representatives, with as many as 40 seats in play. The Senate is closer, but the latest opinion polls show the race leaning the Democrats’ way. Nate Silver – America’s best-known elections forecaster – puts the chances of the Senate changing hands as high as 76 per cent.
Trump was asked last week if he would accept the outcome and replied: “I will – if they’re honest elections.” The Washington Post counts nearly 300 statements by him since January 2025 questioning the integrity of America’s elections.
This has been his modus operandi since the 2016 Republican Iowa caucuses, won by Senator Ted Cruz. “He stole it,” Trump tweeted at the time. In Georgia last month, Trump was singing the same old song when he told the crowd: “Ultimately, we can’t lose, other than their cheating, which is massive.
This is Trump being his usual, transgressive self. But he also believes it – just as he believed, against all evidence, that Joe Biden stole the 2020 election from him. Since then, he has surrounded himself with “election deniers”. Tina Peters, the former clerk of Mesa County, Colorado, was jailed for illegally accessing voting computers in an attempt to prove this lie. Trump campaigned for her release and met her in the Oval Office last month to talk about “election integrity”. She and her lawyer say the President should be ready to seize voting machines and remove ballots for a hand recount.
Mark Warner, the senior Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, has said he worries that Trump will take the voting machines using the pretext of foreign interference in the election. His counterpart in the House, Jim Himes, said he thought Trump might blame China. (Trump could hardly blame Russia after everything he’s said about the “hoax” of Russiagate.)
Police and security escort a protester out as Trump speaks during a campaign rally in Dubuque, Iowa, (Photo: Jacquelyn Martin/AP)Trump has hedged about whether he might invoke the Insurrection Act or declare a state of emergency, effectively taking control of the election using troops. Asked about this by Time magazine, he said: “I don’t rule anything out or in.” The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, had to write to one senator to make clear that the armed forces had no plan to put soldiers at polling stations.
It’s far more likely that Trump will use lawsuits to try to overturn the results of individual races. His Department of Justice has gone to court to try to force 30 states, and Washington DC, to hand over their voter rolls – without success; every ruling went against the administration.
The Department of Justice has also intervened in Alaska’s close Senate race, one of the contests that could change the balance of power in the upper chamber. The Republican incumbent, Dan Sullivan, faces a spoiler candidate with a similar name, who may have been put on the ballot – according to a New York Times report – with help from his Democratic opponent’s campaign. If he loses, the lawsuit says the election should not be certified. (A judge dismissed the suit on Sunday; the department is appealing.)
Trump’s base continues to hold: a CNBC poll gave him an 82 per cent approval rating among Republicans – 90 per cent among Maga supporters (Photo: Evan Vucci/Reuters)Whether Trump can frustrate the results of the election with more legal challenges depends on the size of the defeat. If the Democrats’ majority in the House turns out to be just a handful of seats, expect a legal onslaught. Such an onslaught would be much more difficult to mount if it’s 20, 30 or even 40 seats.
A national landslide would be in line with the latest opinion polls. Trump’s approval rating is 33 per cent in the Washington Post’s poll. The nearest recent comparison is George W Bush in 2006, at 37 per cent, who lost both chambers in an electoral “thumping”, as he put it.
This is largely about the Iran war and what it has done to the US economy. Petrol prices have risen by more than 40 per cent since the war began in February, diesel by almost 70 per cent. In the Post’s poll, almost two-thirds of those questioned said the war was a mistake.
Trump knows what’s coming, and he’s feeling sorry for himself. “Nobody appreciates me,” he told a rally in Wichita. He said it no less than 10 times. A Democratic House will mean a truckload of subpoenas tipped out onto the White House lawn. The Democrats will investigate how he has enriched himself through crypto meme coins and other schemes. They will investigate his family, starting with Jared Kushner, accused by the Democrats of “staggering conflicts of interest” in his role as Trump’s special envoy. There may be many other investigations: Iran, Venezuela, the Epstein files.
Trump is used to this. It is a replay of what happened during his first administration. And he has spent most of his adult life in court, either suing or being sued. The staff, many of them serving in the White House for the first time, may find it more difficult to cope. The Wall Street Journal reports that officials are already “lawyering up”; the calls to defence firms reportedly began in June.
Many House Democrats would like to impeach Trump a third time. Hakeem Jeffries, expected to be speaker, says, “We haven’t ruled anything out” and, “We haven’t ruled anything in”. Jamie Raskin, who would run the Judiciary Committee, has spent the autumn digging into the Epstein files. (Impeachment is the bringing of charges by the House, not conviction, which falls to the Senate, and which requires a two-thirds majority of those present, 67 votes.)
The expected landslide will come from independents and floating voters switching sides. Trump’s surprisingly high support among Hispanic voters at the last presidential election is also eroding. It will disguise the fact that Trump remains popular among Republicans. His base holds: a CNBC poll gave him an 82 per cent approval rating among Republicans – 90 per cent among Maga supporters.
We can expect, then, two contradictory developments after tomorrow’s vote. A resounding defeat for the Republicans will probably put paid to talk of “Trump 2028”, the unconstitutional third term that Trump and his supporters have been publicly musing about. But Trump has remade the Republican Party in his own image. His endorsement could decide who wins his party’s nomination for president next time around.
Wednesday will bring Trump fresh proof that nobody appreciates him. But he will retain the enormous powers of the presidency – and remain a vital force in American politics.
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