Lula’s Upset Is a Win for the Rule of Law and a Blow to Trump ...Middle East

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Brazil had been a shining example of democracy and the rule of law resisting far-right authoritarianism—and this election preserves that legacy.  After Flávio father’s Jair was elected president in 2018 and proceeded to rule like a dictator, a broad pro-democracy coalition led by Lula defeated him in the 2022 election. Bolsonaro wouldn’t concede, and his allies attacked government buildings in an attempt to stop the transfer of power, eerily similar to what Trump and his supporters did in the United States two years prior. That effort failed, and Lula took office. Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court sentenced Jair Bolsonaro to 27 years in prison (he is on house arrest), while its electoral court barred him from running for public office until 2030. Many scholars and pro-democracy experts say Brazil’s treatment of Jair Bolsonaro is what should have happened to Trump. 

Flávio Bolsonaro was also expected to repeat his father’s aggressive anti-environmental policies. That would lead to further deforestation of the Amazon rainforest, the world’s largest, as James North explained in a recent TNR piece. Another calamity avoided. 

“We don’t want dictatorship. We don’t want hatred. We don’t want guns. We want a country of love,” Lula said on the eve of the election. 

Behind the scenes, two State Department officials, Darren Beattie, senior advisor for Western Hemisphere Affairs, and Ricardo Pita Macedo, Deputy Assistant Secretary for North America, spent the last year imploring U.S. diplomats in Brazil to do everything possible to undermine Lula’s administration and restore a member of the Bolsonaro clan to the presidency, according to a detailed report by Reuters. 

Lula’s win is a blow to the billionaire class as well. While American billionaires weren’t overtly helping Bolsonaro as they do Trump, there is considerable evidence that Instagram was suppressing pro-Lula content but not accounts and posts favorable to Bolsonaro. Brazil’s election court thought that the allegations of favoritism were serious enough that it issued a ruling demanding that Meta’s media platforms treat the candidates’ content equally. (Meta denies that its platforms discriminated against Lula.) 

And Lula’s campaign, unlike liberals in the United States and other nations, didn’t hesitate to bluntly accuse a billionaire-owned social media platform of favoring the right. It forced Meta to commit to neutrality. That’s an important precedent from which other left and liberal leaders around the world should borrow. 

To be sure, what happened in Brazil is more avoiding the worst possible outcome than achieving the best one. It’s discouraging that the Bolsonaro family continued to dominate one of Brazil’s major parties after Jair’s anti-democratic rule and coup attempt. It’s even worse that so much of Brazil’s electorate doesn’t prioritize democracy and the rule of law and nearly put a Bolsonaro back into the presidency. And while it didn’t win the presidency, the Bolsonaro-led Liberal Party made huge gains in Brazil’s Congress in this fall’s elections. They will be able to implement much of their agenda and block Lula’s. 

All that said, the narrow defeat of Bolsonaro in Brazil likely followed in two weeks by a resounding rejection of Trump’s party in the United States is worth celebrating. The far-right isn’t dead. But neither is the movement against the far-right.

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