The Mets played well below expectations in 2026. Due to injuries and underperformance, they ultimately finished at 74-88 despite entering the year with playoff aspirations. Among the veterans who struggled was shortstop Francisco Lindor. The soon-to-be 33-year-old strained his left calf in April and ended up missing two months. As a result, he only played in 105 games, his lowest in a non-COVID season since 2015.
When healthy, Lindor was a couple knocks below his usual output at the plate. He batted .225/.309/.423 over 469 plate appearances, hitting 21 home runs in the process and running a 105 wRC+. Lindor struck out over 20% of the time for the first time in his career, although his final 20.3% mark was still better than average. More than anything, he wasn’t collecting as many hits or getting on base as frequently. The veteran’s .309 OBP was a career low and nine points shy of league average.
The power was still there. Lindor put up a .199 isolated slugging percentage this year, matching last year’s figure exactly. Statcast remained bullish, as Lindor had a 91.6 mph average exit velocity and 49.5% hard-hit rate. Those figures ranked in the 88th and 91st percentiles, respectively. In fact, they were both career highs, so it doesn’t seem that Lindor is slowing down from a contact quality perspective.
Injuries explained Lindor’s early struggles. He underwent surgery for a fractured hamate in February and recovered in time to make the Opening Day roster, though he clearly wasn’t himself at the plate. In 105 plate appearances through April 22nd, he batted .226/.314/.355 with a 90 wRC+, indicating Lindor was 10% worse than the average hitter. He returned from the calf injury on June 24th and had a 109 wRC+ the rest of the way. That included an excellent July (139 wRC+) and roughly average performances in August (99 wRC+) and September (100 wRC+).
Lindor’s defense also declined, perhaps owing to the lower-body nature of the calf injury. In just under 900 innings in the field, he was valued at -4 Defensive Runs Saved and zero Outs Above Average. Both were career-worst marks. He particularly struggled coming in on the ball and fielding against left-handed hitters, with Statcast giving him -3 OAA in both scenarios. Fielding Run Value considered Lindor around average at short, whereas he was previously seen as an elite defender.
It’s not exactly surprising that Lindor isn’t the fielder he used to be, both due to the calf injury and the fact that he’s now entering his mid-30s. The question is what can be expected from him on both sides of the ball in 2027. Fielding wise, he might slightly improve over this year with better, making him passable to slightly above average, if no longer elite. Lindor has done well in the past despite never having a great arm. He also checked in just above average while fielding balls hit to his sides, according to Statcast. As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald wrote in our Offseason Outlook entry on the Mets, Lindor may move to second base eventually, but it may not happen next year.
The presence of Jefferson Rojas at Triple-A Syracuse gives the Mets some cover if Lindor doesn’t bounce back in the field. A consensus Top 100 prospect in all of baseball, Rojas could feasibly be called up for a trial run at short, with Lindor sliding to the keystone. It’s also possible that Lindor stays at short and Rojas gets time at second or third base. Rojas has ample experience at every infield position except first base. He mostly played third base this year but would be blocked there in the Majors if Bo Bichette doesn’t opt out of his deal. The overwhelming majority of MLBTR readers predicted Bichette would stay with the Mets in our poll a couple weeks ago.
Compared to his defense, an offensive turnaround is much more likely for Lindor. Despite the improvements in his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, along with his ISO remaining the same from 2025, Lindor batted only .242 on balls in play this year. That’s well below league average and Lindor’s .289 career mark, so he should benefit from positive regression in 2027. He did chase slightly more often this year, but the resulting 29.4% chase rate wasn’t too far above his career norms.
Lindor also has a lengthy track record of above-average hitting. From 2022-25, he posted wRC+ values between 120 and 136 and averaged 6.4 fWAR per season. Even with this year’s down numbers, he was worth 2.2 fWAR, which amounts to a solid everyday player. Apart from better health and luck, the key to a bounce back may simply be better production against fastballs.
Lindor was worth +16 in Run Value against four-seamers just last year, but only -3 Run Value in 2026. He underperformed his expected slugging on the pitch by 53 points, and his hard-hit rate against four-seamers actually increased from 52.5% to 56.5%. Meanwhile, Lindor’s bat speed also increased from 70.9 mph in 2025 to 72.9 mph this year. Sure, he’ll have lost bat speed three or four years from now, but as long as it doesn’t fall off a cliff next year, odds are Lindor can get back to hitting fastballs really well.
All in all, Lindor underwhelmed this year due to injuries and batted ball misfortune, but the signs point to a rebound campaign in 2027. The Mets will be looking for the same from a number of their regulars. Bichette and Brett Baty were 4-8% below average this year, but both were above-average hitters last year. Juan Soto and Carson Benge will continue to be lineup anchors, while Marcus Semien has a lot to prove after slumping to a career-worst 74 wRC+ with poor defense.
Photo courtesy of Raymond Carlin III, Imagn Images
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