It’s obvious that Paul Skenes did not have the follow-up campaign one would have expected of a Cy Young winner. After holding opponents to a 1.97 ERA last year, that figure nearly doubled to 3.82 in 2026. Skenes still came out above average by strikeout rate (28.1%) and walk rate (6.9%), and ERA estimators like xERA (3.28) and SIERA (3.34) were a bit kinder to him than the surface-level ERA. For what it’s worth, FanGraphs valued Skenes at 4.2 wins above replacement, ranking 12th-highest among qualified starters this year. Nonetheless, it was a clear drop-off for Skenes by his lofty standards.
As MLBTR’s Charlie Wright wrote in August, Skenes’ stuff looked mostly the same this year. Apart from ditching his cutter, the righty’s four-seam fastball, splitter, sinker, slider, and changeup usage were all within 3.5% of their 2025 levels. The four-seamer remained his most common offering and averaged 96.8 mph – a 1.4 mph decrease from last year, but still well above league average. Curiously, the most drastic change in Skenes’ pitch mix was a sharp decline in the effectiveness of his changeup.
Skenes’ offspeed pitches ranked in the 100th percentile of Run Value in 2024, then the 98th percentile in 2025. This year, they plummeted to just the ninth percentile with a Run Value of -4. The changeup was the worst offender, falling all the way from +9 RV to -6. After hitting just .103 with a .126 slugging percentage against that offering in 2025, opponents batted .233 with a .384 SLG while striking out 15.6% less against it in 2026. In terms of movement, Skenes lost 1.8 inches of vertical drop and 0.5 inches of horizontal break on the changeup, making it a flatter, straighter offering.
Skenes notably threw his pitches from a two to four-degree higher arm slot than in the past. Perhaps that change in delivery made the changeup easier for batters to pick up and led to the increased contact and slugging. The pitch dropped by 15 points in FanGraphs’ Stuff+ rating, and there may have been spillover effects from the loss of the changeup as an effective secondary pitch. Skenes’ four-seamer, sinker, splitter, and slider experienced 10-19 point drops in Stuff+. Their run values remained above average, if a step down from their 2025 levels.
While it’s hard to pin much of the blame on a single pitch, it is interesting that Skenes’ strikeout numbers fell off against left-handed hitters, against whom he uses the changeup more often. He struck out 31.5% of lefties in 2025, but that declined to 26.7% in 2026. He continued to dominate right-handed hitters, going from 27.1% to 30.0% in strikeout rate. Meanwhile, lefties had an 83-point increase in OPS against Skenes. They also saw a 4.2% increase in ideal angle attack rate, suggesting lefties had less trouble tracking Skenes’ pitches and making competitive swings.
Of course, there are other explanations for Skenes’ relative downturn besides the changeup. He pitched for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic, later noting it as the potential root of his decreased fastball velocity as the season went on. “There are a lot of other factors, so I don’t want to put everything on that. But I feel like that was kind of the root of it a little bit,” he told Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette last month. It could also be a broader workload concern, as Skenes has thrown 522 1/3 innings between the Majors and minors since the start of 2024, and he’s not even 25 years old yet. Having a normal Spring Training could help ease that concern for 2027.
What do MLBTR readers think? Does Skenes need to refine his changeup, or does he just need a normal, non-WBC offseason to get on track?
Does Paul Skenes just need to fix his changeup?
Yes. That will keep hitters off balance and have spillover benefits for the fastball and slider. No. He just needs to lower his arm slot to where it was before. No. He just needs a normal offseason. Vote Vote to see results No. He just needs to lower his arm slot to where it was before. 47% (7) No. He just needs a normal offseason. 33% (5) Yes. That will keep hitters off balance and have spillover benefits for the fastball and slider. 20% (3)Total votes: 15
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