The law, which was set to take effect Oct. 18, called for sanctions targeting Russian officials, financial institutions, and other entities, alongside tariffs of up to 100% on goods imported into the U.S. from major buyers of Russian crude oil or natural gas. Those measures were intended to restrict the financial resources supporting Russia’s war against Ukraine.
The U.K.’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office estimated in June 2025 that international sanctions had deprived the Russian state of at least $450 billion in war funds since February 2022, including through lost oil tax revenues and immobilized central-bank reserves.
Trump has also pushed Ukraine to scale back its own campaign against Russia’s energy sector, repeatedly urging Kyiv to halt strikes on Russian fuel infrastructure and suggesting that those attacks are driving up U.S. fuel prices. But Ukrainian strikes are only one factor affecting fuel prices; disruptions linked to the war with Iran are largely responsible for constraining global supplies, while reduced Russian refinery activity has added pressure to diesel markets.
That same day, Trump called for Ukraine to replace President Volodymyr Zelensky. Withdrawing sanctions within a week of those statements, and thereby improving Russia’s financial position, points to an increasingly uneven display of support from the U.S.
A diesel deal with Russia, announced Oct. 9, is one of the many recent actions Trump has taken in an effort to reduce fuel prices for Americans ahead of midterm elections on Nov. 3. The deal came with an easing of sanctions as the Treasury Department issued a temporary license authorizing transactions involving Russian diesel, including imports into the U.S., through April 7, 2027.
But experts question whether the deal would actually have any material impact on the price of fuel for American consumers.
The waiver signed Friday, in comparison, could potentially prevent additional disruption to the global energy market. It allows Russian oil to continue flowing to importers like China and India, preventing further market volatility.
Reducing that pressure—which has widely been interpreted as a component of the diesel deal, though it has not been explicitly identified as such—likely benefits Russia more than the monetary value of the diesel deal itself, Mitrova points out.
And while Trump has touted the benefits of the deal, Colgan questions whether they will be tangible to any country other than Russia itself.
But the potential consequences extend beyond Russia’s balance sheet. The waiver also raises questions about Washington’s commitment to Ukraine as relations between the two countries deteriorate.
Konstantin Sonin, a Russian economist and a professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy, reads the move as a symbolic gesture of support for Russian President Vladimir Putin. He suggests that it could send a message to U.S. allies that extends beyond economic considerations.
In addition to bolstering Russia’s finances and giving it latitude in its invasion of Ukraine, Sonin says that the waiver of additional sanctions could also “boost morale” for Putin.
Mitrova agrees that the biggest benefit to Russia might be more strategic than financial.
Zelensky criticized the decision to block the new sanctions.
Mitrova argues that in easing sanctions, the U.S. also compromises its position with European leadership that has continued to align closely with Zelensky and Ukraine.
Why Republicans and Democrats are criticizing the waiver
Trump’s waiver earned a flood of criticism from both sides of the aisle, particularly since it undermined a widely supported act of Congress. The Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026 cleared Congress on Sept. 16 with overwhelming bipartisan support: a vote of 86-11 in the Senate and a vote of 262-159 in the House.
Suggesting that the Trump Administration is overtly snubbing the will of the legislative branch, Tillis wrote on X: “It’s unconscionable that this administration is capitulating to a Russian dictator who illegally invaded Ukraine.”
Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a Democrat, said in a statement that Trump was “enabling Vladimir Putin to continue his war of aggression.”
Trump was able to waive the sanctions through a safety valve provision embedded in the legislation. The law allowed Trump to waive its sanctions and tariffs after submitting a written certification to Congress that doing so was in the national interest, along with a report explaining that determination. In Friday’s order, Trump said he had submitted both.
Trump has not yet publicly disclosed how the move served national interests, and the White House did not reply to TIME’s request for comment.
“I don’t trust Putin and I don’t trust Russia,” she said.
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