NEW YORK – If the polls turn out to be true for the US midterm elections, Bob Cusack is clear about what he thinks comes next for the Republican Party: civil war.
“After the election, it’s gonna get ugly,” said Cusack, the editor of the Washington Examiner, a right-wing newspaper. “We all know Donald Trump will say it’s not my fault and will blame Congressional Republicans. It’s not hard to see this is going to be rough.”
Cusack is not alone in this view. Capitol Hill insiders told The i Paper that the midterms, which take place on 3 November, would be the beginning of the end for Trump, whose power will drain away as he becomes a lame duck for the last two years of his presidency.
Democrats are widely expected to retake the House, and could also regain control of the Senate, as voters sour on the President over his Iran war and the rise in costs of living it has caused.
Trump was a lame duck in the second half of his first term in office, but he is barred for running again, so this will be it for him. Despite talk of an unconstitutional third term, that seems to be a reality that even Trump, 80, appears resigned to.
Veteran Republican strategist Keith Naughton said that after the election, Washington is going to see the “maddest scramble for power this town’s ever seen”.
He added: “I think it’s going to be a big fight because so much of what Trump does is personality driven. What is the Trump philosophy seems to be up for grabs right now. Everyone’s got their own opinions and will try to impose them on the party”.
Steve Schmidt, a former adviser to George W. Bush, John McCain and ex-California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, said that understanding what comes next for Republicans “requires a basic comprehension of astronomy”.
“When a star collapses, as it gets smaller, it gets hotter and denser and will ultimately collapse and become a black hole,” he said. “The Republican Party in defeat will be repudiated, it will become smaller, more extreme and more delusional.”
A Trump supporter with a Maga ring at an election night party at Mar-a-Lago Club in 2024 (Photo: Chandan Khanna/AFP)Schmidt sees the party becoming more divisive in the short term, as Trump’s influence lingers. “They are completely dug in and any Republican who looks at this and says, ‘I’d like to get off the crazy train before we lose the next election’ has to appreciate there’s no appetite for any of this,” he said, adding: “Before Maga reaches its final end it will only ever get more extreme.”
For Trump, the Iran War has undermined what was for the past decade his strongest argument to voters: that he was a shrewd businessman who could manage the economy. Since the first bombs fell on Tehran in late February, all that has changed.
The price of diesel in the US is now over $6 (£4.53) a gallon on average, and regular petrol around $4.40 (£3.32), an increase of 40 per cent from before the conflict began.
This is having a strong impact. According to a recent poll by Reuters/IPSOS, 37 per cent of voters now trust Democrats to better manage the economy, compared to 36 per cent for Republicans. This is the first time Democrats have held the advantage since Trump first ran for office in 2015.
Some Republicans have broken with Trump on immigration, including Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, who said that Trump had “betrayed” the Hispanic voters in her Miami district with his campaign of mass deportations. But Cusack said the war with Iran was the main source of “mounting frustration”.
Supporters of Donald Trump march in New York to mark the 25th anniversary of 9/11, where several speakers demanded the mayor, who is a practising Muslim, not attend the memorial ceremony (Photo: Andrew Lichtenstein/Corbis via Getty Images)“It was supposed to be over in six weeks,” he said. “Then maybe by Labour Day. And now there’s no deal coming and people will be voting with the war on. Trump is struggling and the party is really struggling. The Republican party is stuck right now.”
As Cusack sees it, the aftermath of the election will be “quite a show”.
Cusack said the first thing Trump is likely to do, if polls prove accurate, is to blame Congressional Republicans rather than accept any responsibility. Then he will likely start issuing more executive orders, “as he will want people to remember he’s the President… he will want to be the centre of attention”.
The President will also go after his enemies, Cusack said, and will double down on that, especially if Democrats start investigating him and his family.
Trump could also increasingly weigh in on the race to succeed him, actively seeking a kingmaker role in the future of the party.
However, others have a more upbeat view of how Republicans will fare when American voters go to the polls next month.
Vice President JD Vance will be looking hard at his own future after the midterms (Photo: Jeff Kowalsky/Reuters)Angie Wong, a Republican strategist based in Miami, pointed to the massive cash advantage Republicans enjoy over Democrats. Trump’s Super PAC, MAGA Inc, reportedly has $416m (£314.5m) in its war chest, and Republicans are expected to spend nearly $900m (£680.5m) on advertising during the election cycle, compared to around $660m (£499m) for Democrats.
Wong also said that the Republican Party had “cleared a lane” for Vice President JD Vance, who is widely seen as Trump’s most likely successor, for after the midterms.
However, the Iran War could make life difficult for Vance, a sceptic on foreign conflicts who has begrudgingly gone along with Trump’s war.
“If JD Vance runs, he will distance himself from the Iran war,” Wong said, pointing to the example of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is also considered a leading candidate to run in 2028. “Rubio is nowhere near Iran, he’s walked away from any Iranian dealings whatsoever, mainly to protect his future.”
But the reality is that if the party does turn on itself after the midterms, in large part because of the damage caused by Trump’s war, all bets are off.
“If Vance does run, people will go after him for having a forever war,” she added. “A vote for him will be a referendum on Trump’s war.”
Context:
US midterm elections take place on 3 November, which could help to shape the remainder of Trump’s time in office. The President’s approval ratings have fallen dramatically since the start of the US-Israeli war with Iran. With less than four weeks to go before the midterms, Trump is embarking on a campaign blitz through some of the most reliably Republican parts of the US, as Democrats make an unlikely push into states Trump comfortably won in 2024. Last month, the President promised a $5,000 “dividend” for every American if Republicans keep control of Congress in the midterms. Some have questioned the legality of the pledge.Hence then, the article about it s gonna get ugly how a midterm savaging would see trump s power seep away was published today ( ) and is available on inews ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
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