Specifically, these temperatures occurred in the Niño 3.4 region, located between 5 degrees north and 5 degrees south latitude, and 120 degrees west and 170 degrees west longitude. Researchers use this region to monitor the progression of El Niño, the warm phase of a multiyear natural climate pattern that's currently in full swing and steadily intensifying. But how significant is this new record, and could it be a harbinger of increasingly extreme El Niño events in the future?
"If the reported daily El Niño 3.4 temperature above 30°C is verified in the observational dataset, it would be an extraordinary record," Yu told Live Science in an email.
But it's important to note that absolute temperature is not the standard way of measuring the strength of El Niño, Osborn said. Researchers usually assess El Niño intensity by comparing sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region with the average conditions there or with sea surface temperatures across the rest of the tropics, with the latter method removing a skew in the data caused by the climate-change-induced heating of oceans globally.
El Niño events happen when warm water in the western tropical Pacific Ocean migrates eastward along the equator, toward South America. This boosts global temperatures, triggering heavy rainfall and floods in regions like East Africa, southern China, the southern U.S. and the Pacific coast of equatorial South America, while places such as Indonesia, the Philippines, southern Africa and northern South America experience drought.
As of Oct. 6, the temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region is 6 F (3.34 C) above average and rising. A typical El Niño increases Niño 3.4 temperatures by a maximum of 1.8 to 3.6 F (1 to 2 C) above average, so the current condition is "exceptionally large," Yu said. "This indicates that a very strong, or what is sometimes called a 'super,' El Niño is developing."
Sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3,4 region exceeded 86 degrees F (30 C) on Oct. 5. (Image credit: ClimateReanalyzer.org (CC BY 4.0))"The Niño 3.4 anomaly is very likely to remain extremely large and may increase further," Yu said, echoing forecasters' suggestions that it could reach 7.2 F (4 C) by November.
A new kind of El Niño?
While it's likely that future El Niños will be more extreme than past ones, on average, not every El Niño will be record-breaking and as dramatic as the one unfolding now, because these events tend to be very variable, Collins said.
Instead, the location and duration of El Niño events may be transforming, Yu suggested. "In research by my group and collaborators, we have documented changes not only in El Niño intensity, but also in where the warming occurs and how long events persist," he said.
RELATED STORIESYu and his colleagues helped to introduce the idea that we are seeing the emergence of two distinct types of El Niño: the eastern Pacific El Niño and the central Pacific El Niño. "Many El Niño events in the earlier observational record were dominated by warming in the eastern tropical Pacific, whereas Central Pacific El Niño events became much more prominent in recent decades," he explained, adding that El Niños have also been lasting longer.
"That provides a physical reason to take the possibility of more frequent extreme El Niño events in a warmer climate seriously," Yu said. "But I would distinguish that from saying that every El Niño will become progressively stronger."
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