“I don't know what their decision is going to be. They have a reputation for maybe not giving it to people like me,” Trump said, insisting that it would be a “great discredit” to the Norwegian Nobel Committee if they do not announce him as the recipient Friday morning.
Trump said he was “very honored to receive it indirectly last time by the recipient, who said nobody in history deserves it more” than him. The 2025 winner, Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, notably gave her medal to Trump in January as she pressed the U.S. to support democracy in Venezuela, days after the U.S. capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores.
Trump has long said he is deserving of the prize. The leaders of Israel, Cambodia, and Pakistan have all previously said they nominated Trump. However, all nominations remain private and the Norwegian Nobel Institute doesn’t release a shortlist of contenders. Still, each year, names are circulated in public discourse and bets are made as to who might come out on top.
As Trump’s war with Iran stretches into its eighth month, polls have tipped him as an unlikely contender to walk away with this year’s award. Amid mounting speculation over who may be the chosen recipient, here’s a look at some of the contenders.
Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms have provided desperately needed relief. The collapse of the state and increasingly difficult access for humanitarian groups over the past three years has led to a rise of 700 ERRs across all of Sudan’s 18 states, mobilizing over 26,000 volunteers, according to Alsanosi Adam, a journalist and ERR volunteer himself.
The charity is a lead contender to win the Nobel Peace Prize, with Polymarket citing a 17% chance.
Mark Carney
The tariff threats escalated and, following the collapse of negotiations in August, the U.S. and Canada are now engaged in a trade war.
He delivered a defiant speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, denouncing “American hegemony” and insisting there has been a “rupture in the world order.”
When it comes to the Nobel Peace Prize, he’s more an outsider, with a 1% chance of receiving the honor.
His repeated calls for peace, including his spotlight on Gaza, have made an impact, and even earned him criticism from Trump.
In the aftermath of the first U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, Leo said “stability and peace are not achieved through mutual threats, nor through the use of weapons, which sow destruction, suffering, and death, but only through reasonable, sincere, and responsible dialogue.”
Pope Leo stands with a 1% chance of being awarded the prize.
Mykola Kuleba
Missing Ukrainian children have become a focal point of humanitarian efforts amid the war, with Moscow contending that it relocated children in an effort to protect them.
“[Kuleba’s] work combines direct humanitarian action with strong advocacy for children’s rights, making him a compelling candidate for international recognition,” said Haakon Gjerløw, acting director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), in his list of suggested candidates for the 2026 peace prize.
Yulia Navalnaya
Yulia Navalnaya, widow of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, has become an activist in her own right, challenging President Vladimir Putin’s regime and fighting for democracy.
Navalnaya is listed as having a 5% chance of winning the Nobel Peace Prize.
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