There is little point in arguing with Trump about crowd sizes because you can just look at the event photos—there are many empty seats. These rallies are also taking place at smaller venues than he’s used in the past, as noted in recent Daily Beast analysis. On Friday, Trump drew about 8,000 people to a basketball arena in Mobile, Alabama, that holds 10,000—whereas in 2015, he turned out more than 30,000 people to a football stadium in the same city. But perhaps the biggest problem of all is that he was in Mobile to begin with: Why is the president campaigning in deep-red Alabama when his party is fighting for its life in swing states?
So, again, why is Trump rallying in places like Mobile and Durant, Oklahoma? “I’m really here because, sometimes,” Trump said at Friday’s Alabama rally, “you’ve got to pay respect to the people that loved you right from the beginning.” It’s a good line, but the notion that Trump pays respect to anyone is laughable. He is simply going where he’s still wanted—where he still has hardcore supporters, and where GOP incumbents and challengers still benefit politically from being seen next to him. There aren’t many of those places left.
Trump’s Greatest Hits tour gets at one of the odder dynamics in this year’s midterm elections. The race is all about Trump, directly and indirectly: about his political project and persona, yes, but also about how that project is currently affecting American lives (mostly badly). Trump is eagerly making the race about himself because that’s all that he knows how to do. Vulnerable Republicans, meanwhile, are doing everything they can to distance themselves from him—including breaking with him over Iran and immigration. But those efforts are often drowned out by the president himself.
That’s what panic looks like for Trump. For the rest of the Republican Party, they aren’t really hiding it. Iowa House Republicans were told “by their own pollsters,” per the very plugged in Steve Deace, “that if you are in a +15 district you’re within the margin for error, if you’re in a +10 district you’re underwater, and that this might end being an even worse midterm environment than 2006.” You’re seeing these issues everywhere, including many formerly safe red states: Kansas, South Carolina, even Mississippi. Polling misses are possible, but the vibecast is far more reliable: Thanks to interest rates, gas prices, trade wars, real wars, and Trump, these midterms are shaping up to be a historic bloodbath for the Republicans.
Trump will keep jetting from rally to rally, and keep jerking his arms as “YMCA” blares in ever-smaller venues. He will keep reciting old grievances about Hillary Clinton and newer ones about trans people and Canadians. He will keep doing what he’s always done because he doesn’t know how to do anything else. But there was a kernel to what he said in Mobile about seeking the company of the people who loved him all along. As he becomes more unpopular and his party’s panic grows, these cozy rallies are his safe space—the last remaining place where he is still adored, still funny, and still winning.
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