In a new analysis published Sept. 28 in the journal The Lancet Oncology, researchers mapped the global impact of 12 cancer-causing pathogens. They estimate that infections drove about 2.3 million new cancer cases in 2024, or about 12% of all cancer cases diagnosed that year.
"When combined with other risk factors such as tobacco use, alcohol consumption, appropriate diet, physical activity, and environmental pollution, it is estimated that about 50 to 60 percent of all cancers in India are avoidable," he said. Past studies suggest that similar figures hold on a global scale.
Their analysis focused on 12 pathogens tied to cancer, including human papillomavirus (HPV), hepatitis B and C, HIV and Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), the virus behind mononucleosis. The resulting breakdown revealed that just four pathogens accounted for roughly 92% of the cancer cases caused by infections.
The scale of the burden contrasts with gaps in prevention. In 2024, just 31% of eligible adolescent girls worldwide received at least one dose of the HPV vaccine, well below the 90% target, the World Health Organization reports. The degree of protection provided by the vaccine is striking in countries that have achieved higher coverage.
But these successes are concentrated in wealthy nations. The Lancet study found that low- and middle-income countries bear 77% of the global infection-driven cancer burden. For example, about 81% of HPV-linked cancers occurred in these countries.
As with HPV, there is a highly effective vaccine for hepatitis B that can help prevent both the infection and related cancers. (Image credit: BSIP via Getty Images)
In the U.S., progress has been uneven across states with some boasting high vaccination rates and others lagging behind. One barrier is that some children's caregivers feel the shots are unnecessary or that their kids are too young to receive it. "The biggest misconception from families is that the HPV vaccine is not needed or that it can wait," Perkins noted. "The reality is that you can't vaccinate too early, only too late."
While the challenge with HPV and hepatitis B is getting their vaccines into widespread use, there isn't an approved vaccine for EBV yet.
Epstein-Barr infections are also incredibly common, with up to 95% of people infected by adulthood; most people infected with the virus don't develop a related cancer, but it's still a major contributor to the global cancer burden. The germ has also been tied to several autoimmune diseases, which may help spur the development of a vaccine, Shannon-Lowe suggested.
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The true scale of the infection-related cancer burden may be even larger than the study suggested. Some of the registries used in the new research cover only about 19% of the global population, and only 2% of Africa's population. More high-quality data is needed to fill in these gaps.
"Studies have clearly demonstrated that the return on investment of prevention on cancers is much higher than on its treatment in the long run," he said. "Preventive aspects must be strengthened for long-term gains."
This article is for informational purposes only and is not meant to offer medical advice.
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