Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.
So today we’re talking about Texas with Madison Andrus, a national official with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee who’s focused on the region. We have new internal Democratic polling to share on what’s going on there. Madison, thanks for coming on.
Sargent: It’s pretty remarkable. So the Times reported on this event where Paxton declared privately that after Trump’s convention, “everybody’s numbers dropped.” Paxton added, “right now, yeah, not good.” Now, Paxton’s campaign reacted very vehemently to this, saying it was a fake story.
Andrus: We are definitely seeing movement in the polling post this party in Dallas. You know, our DCCC internal polling from August showed Bobby Pulido beating Monica De La Cruz 49 to 43. And then just today we got new polling from the House Majority PAC that is showing Bobby Pulido up now double digits. So all of these things compounding are really leading to great momentum, and that is playing out in the data, and we’re seeing it every day.
Andrus: Yeah, something is very much happening in South Texas, just across the board, and we are seeing great numbers. Not just in Texas 15, but, you know, our polling in Texas 34—we polled in September right before the convention, and our internals showed Congressman Vicente Gonzalez beating Eric Flores 47 to 40. You know, these are just incredible numbers for Democrats to be putting up.
They did this because they thought that they were going to be able to lock up, you know, five, six seats for themselves, and that they wouldn’t have to fight in these seats. And now they’re losing. They are still losing after all of that. And they’re trying to pour millions of dollars into these races, and they’re not seeing a return on their investment, because they are just that unpopular.
Donald Trump (voiceover): Why go to Texas? Well, I’ll tell you what, we have to win this election. That convention—you were there—that convention was a tremendous success. It went up against the NFL, and as you know, they had twenty-four, I guess—it was, I said twenty-five yesterday, it was actually—they had twenty-four million views and we had a hundred and seven million views. In other words, we beat the NFL by four times. And maybe that was so for Ken, but I could tell you, we were there for a lot. First of all, I won Texas all three times. I won the Hispanic vote. I’m going because you have to thank these states that are with you a thousand percent.
Andrus: Yeah, I actually thought that that was really remarkable as well. You know, those are the numbers that Donald Trump is focused on. He’s focused on his television ratings. What he’s not focused on is the cost of gas. He’s not focused on the six dollars and fifty cents a gallon it’s taking for truck drivers to fill up their tanks.
The numbers that he and House Republicans are not focused on are how much the cost of health care has gone up, because they cut Medicaid last year, or because they failed to extend the Affordable Care Act tax credits. So now the cost of health care is spiking.
Sargent: Well, I want to go back to the districts that you highlighted. There was Texas’s Fifteenth District, where Democratic challenger Bobby Pulido is challenging GOP Congresswoman Monica De La Cruz. And Texas’s Thirty-Fourth District, where the incumbent Democratic congressman, Vicente Gonzalez, is being challenged by Republican Eric Flores. The reason this region, I think, is of such great interest is because these districts abut the southern border, they have a lot of Latinos in them, they have some southern Texas counties. Some of this is in the Rio Grande Valley along the border with Mexico.
Andrus: Yeah, we are investing very heavily in South Texas, especially the Rio Grande Valley, the RGV. An article came out just a few days ago about our seven-figure investment into bringing those voters back home. Because they did swing to Trump last time around. But what Republicans mistook was that these were now going to be reliable Republican voters. And that’s just not the case.
And they are seeing in Johnny Garcia someone who talks about being able to afford Big Red and barbacoa at the end of the week. And they’re seeing our South Texas Democrats talking about making life more affordable.
And so Vicente has a really great ad right now that just highlights how much prices have increased, and how much that’s hurting South Texas families and also just hurting the culture.
Andrus: Yeah, no, it very much is. Like, these are famous South Texas restaurants taking brisket off of the menu, which would have been unheard of just a couple of years ago.
In Texas’s Fifteenth District, Democrat Bobby Pulido, the challenger, is leading GOP Congresswoman Monica De La Cruz by 49 to 43. And in Texas’s Thirty-Fourth District, you have Democratic incumbent Congressman Vicente Gonzalez, as we discussed, leading Republican challenger Eric Flores by 47 to 40. What’s driving those shifts?
In these rural parts of South Texas, especially in the RGV and places like that, a drive to the grocery store can be 30 minutes each way. And so when you are thinking about how much gas costs now, to just make your weekly trip to the grocery store eats up that much of your gas budget for the month.
Now, what is the role of Latinos in all this? We reported this week in The New Republic that in both these districts, Trump’s approval on immigration among Latinos is down in the thirties. And I’m wondering if you guys are seeing something similar. I know you keep talking about the economy. What’s driving this Latino shift for you guys? Is there an immigration component as well?
But then also, kind of going towards the immigration angle, I think that definitely plays a part of it. And it plays a large part because of the way it impacts everyday life down in these communities. You know, folks like Vicente Gonzalez have said for years that we needed a strong and secure border and we need safe communities. He’s been right on this issue for years and years.
And so I think we are seeing it just play out in everyday life for folks down there. And also, I know we’re talking about the economy a lot, but this immigration enforcement is also impacting the economy down there. Homes that once took three or four months to build are now taking eleven months, because people are afraid to go to work, because they don’t know if they’re going to be able to go home that day. Because that is who they’re picking up.
Sargent: I want to try to underscore the magnitude of the shift against Trump. Again, he won the Fifteenth District by nearly 18 points, and now his approval rating is 36 percent. He won the Thirty-Fourth District by 10 points, and now his approval rating is 35 percent. Those numbers are correct, right?
Sargent: Well, you just brought up Texas’s Twenty-Eighth District. That’s where Democratic incumbent Henry Cuellar is facing a Republican challenger, and it’s a very competitive race. Guess what? Trump won that district by 10 points as well in 2024. But now you guys have his approval in the twenties, right?
And Tano Tijerina, the Republican challenging Henry Cuellar, was out at that party in Dallas on stage talking about how great things are going. Things are not going great for folks in South Texas when they are struggling to pay their bills and make it to the end of the week.
I don’t hear that much from Bobby Pulido or from the other Democrats in South Texas. Am I wrong about that? Are they advertising on immigration in any way? And if not, why not?
And so I think, when it comes also to the nun who was detained just a few weeks after, it was Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez who sounded the alarm about all of this happening. And so I do think our South Texas folks are talking about this issue, but they’re talking about it in ways that it directly impacts their communities.
Sargent: Is there a risk of overextending here by going after some of these—I want to be clear, like, I think Democrats should compete everywhere. Like, I’m thrilled that Democrats are putting huge resources into the Rio Grande Valley and going after places that Trump won by 10, 18 points. But I do want to ask, is there some risk of overextension here? Or are the resources there for contesting all these places to the degree that they need to be contested?
Look, we are not taking any voter or any district for granted. We are going to work from now until November 3 to earn every single one of those votes. And it’s especially important in Texas, where we saw this mid-decade redistricting happen to try to subvert the will of Texas voters.
Sargent: Can I ask, is there any risk of overextension here or not?
Sargent: Well, you’re going to need to get those numbers up, in part because of the redistricting, which has taken a bunch off the board, really. Although maybe not, we’ll see.
Sargent: Right. Just to underscore the point, Republicans redistricted Texas and they thought that they were actually creating seats that would be easier for them to pick up as well. But some of those are now in real trouble for them, right?
I mentioned that I was down in South Texas just two weeks ago with Johnny Garcia. One of the other conversations we had while we were just walking around in this neighborhood was, he went up to go talk to some guy, and he said, you know, I’ve never voted for a Democrat before in my life, but I’m going to vote for you because I remember you from the sheriff’s department. And I think that is the kind of community connections that Democrats are making in these districts all across the battlefield. And that is what is really going to deliver us these wins come November.
Andrus: Yep. We’re going to win each and every one of them.
Andrus: All right, yeah. Thanks for having me. It was a great time.
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