Andy Burnham has said all options are on the table for the future of UK-EU relations, including rejoining the bloc’s single market or going “all the way”.
During his Labour conference speech on Tuesday, the Prime Minister said Government would explore “different options” on improving Britain’s long-term relationship with the European Union.
It comes after pressure from Labour grandees to rejoin the EU.
Sadiq Khan, the London Mayor, told The i Paper he wants Britain to return to the customs union “almost straight away” and a clear commitment in the next Labour manifesto to reverse Brexit without a second referendum.
Asked on Wednesday what the options might look like, Burnham told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “We could stay as we are… if people think this is the right place to stay.
“We could look at what [former Chancellor] George Osborne has said about a customs union, we could look at what the Liberal Democrats said at their conference about the single market, or we could go all the way.”
However, Brexit experts are sceptical. Despite polls showing that a narrow majority of Britons support the idea of rejoining, it may require a much bigger shift in favour of EU membership, they told The i Paper.
It could also take five to 10 years to get back in, they warned – even if the Government was able to show that returning was the “settled will” of the British people. Here’s how rejoining might look.
A second referendum?
A second vote is not technically necessary for the UK government to apply to rejoin the EU. Labour could, in theory, apply to rejoin if they won the next election on a manifesto commitment – as Khan has suggested.
However, leading experts think that is unrealistic. A referendum would likely be needed to provide a stable mandate to start negotiations with the EU – something that would be expected to last beyond another general election and a possible change of government.
“It would be difficult, politically, to rejoin without a referendum,” said Professor Catherine Barnard, an expert in EU law at the University of Cambridge. “The EU would want to see that it was the settled will of the UK. Why would the EU commit to serious negotiations if there was chance of a different government being elected and pulling out?”
Dr Kirsty Hughes, an expert on EU relations and a fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh, agreed that it was “politically tricky” without another vote by the British people. “It’s not an obligation. But almost all member states joining in recent decades have had a vote to show clear public support.”
Joining the Euro and Schengen
If the UK applied to rejoin, the EU would need to ensure the applicant met the 1993 Copenhagen Criteria – offering basic democratic freedoms, a functioning market economy and the capacity to implement EU laws.
This shouldn’t be an issue, say experts. However, if talks then began, there would be a series of big issues to resolve.
The EU could demand that Britain use the Euro and become part of the Schengen Area, the borderless travel zone that is one element upholding the bloc’s principle of freedom of movement.
The UK previously had opt-out agreements for both the Euro and Schengen – and it is possible the EU would be willing to let Britain rejoin under the same deal, suggested Dr Thomas Sampson, economist and Brexit expert at LSE.
Joining the Euro and Schengen area have been typical requirements for countries looking to join the EU. However, “you could pledge to join the euro one day, with everyone understanding that it probably wouldn’t ever happen,” Sampson said. “That would be one way of getting an opt-out.”
Barnard, though, thinks the UK would be “expected” to sign up to the euro, and that getting an opt-out on Schengen would be “unlikely”.
Anand Menon, director of think tank UK in a Changing Europe, said a Schengen opt-out was possible, but it might be more difficult with the euro.
“There will be people inside the EU saying we should make them join the euro because it will make it harder for [us] to ever leave,” he added.
‘Enthusiasm’ of member states
The European Commission, which would be driving talks from Brussels, would need to approve any deal for the UK to rejoin. A majority of MEPs in the European Parliament would also have to vote in favour.
All the bloc’s member states – who collectively make up the European Council – would also have to agree.
Barnard thinks the negotiations themselves could take “at least four to five years” before a ratification process, which “may then take another few years” – particularly if some members were not enthusiastic.
“You could be looking at a decade,” she added.
If would mean that if talks did not start until after a Labour general election victory in 2029 – or following a referendum in favour of rejoining soon after 2029 – it could be 2040 before Britain was back in the bloc.
Hughes is slightly more optimistic, saying negotiations could be completed in three years, with ratification taking two more.
“If you started the process in 2030, you could be looking at 2035 – why not?” she suggested. But she added: “If there are member states going to be difficult about it, it could take longer.”
Menon said it would be “very unlikely” and “really hard” to complete the process “in one parliamentary term” of five years.
‘Brexit caused more harm than good’
Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds has said that restarting the debate about reversing Brexit risks reopening the “political paralysis and uncertainty” the UK underwent when it was leaving.
Labour also has manifesto “red lines”, which rule out rejoining the EU, its single market, customs union, or freedom of movement.
But Burnham used his conference speech to say he was now prepared to drop those red lines after the next general election.
He said the UK had “lost some control” over the economy, as well as immigration, by leaving the EU, adding: “Brexit has done more harm than good.”
“So I will take the opportunity around the [UK-EU] summit to lay out to you, to lay out to the country, what I believe are the different options for Britain’s long-term relationship with our European partners. And there are different options.
“And I will see if we can find consensus around one which will give us clarity about our position and the future of the continent that we live in.”
The chances of rejoining, rated
The i Paper asked the experts to rate, on a scale of one to 10, the likelihood of the UK rejoining the EU. Many suggested there was a lack of sufficiently strong public opinion to justify such a seismic change.
Professor Catherine Barnard
“It doesn’t feel very likely without another a big political shift in favour.” 4/10
Dr Kirsty Hughes
“I think it’s desirable. It’s certainly possible one day. But it feels unlikely to happen anytime soon without a further political shift in favour of rejoining.”5/10
Professor Alan Renwick
Renwick – professor of politics at the UCL Constitution Unit – said there would still need to be “quite a dramatic change” in public opinion for any government to feel like there was an “overwhelming support” to push to rejoin.5/10
Anand Menon
Menon said rejoining the EU felt “more likely than at any point since we voted to leave” and a desire for an economic boost, and to forge closer ties with traditional allies in a time of uncertainty had given the push to reverse Brexit some momentum. However, he added that it “still feels very difficult for a Prime Minister to commit to… It would take up a lot of political capital, and the benefits would only be felt 10 years down the line.”
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