ESPN’s SP+ has crunched the numbers on those cowbells that will be rampant in Starkville on Saturday afternoon, and it’s revealed what it believes the final score will be when No. 7 Alabama visits No. 16 Mississippi State in one of the most anticipated games of the 2026 college football season.
There is the backdrop of those cowbells, a glorious tradition of Bulldogs football, and one of the biggest games in recent memory at Davis Wade Stadium. The matchup between 4-0 teams will kick off at noon ET on ABC, with national attention focused on Mississippi State and its budding star quarterback, Kamario Taylor.
Both teams are also 2-0 in the SEC coming in, with Alabama currently about a touchdown favorite in the mega matchup.
Someone is going to walk off the field on Saturday with its first overall loss and first SEC loss, so who does ESPN’s SP+ believe it will be?
They see it as a close game, with the Bulldogs hanging tough but with the Crimson Tide getting the last laugh in a 32-27 victory. The projected margin given by SP+ is 5.4 points, so this margin of victory for the Crimson Tide is right in that margin range.
The SP+ is also giving Alabama a 63% chance to escape Starkville with its perfect record intact.
Here is the full listing of SP+ projected final scores for a loaded Week 5 of action:
WEEK 5 SP+ PICKSOhio St 30, Iowa 19Bama 32, Miss St 27Florida 28, Mizzou 26UGA 39, Vandy 14Tennessee 30, Auburn 21BYU 28, TCU 22Houston 29, UCF 24Irish 36, Heels 13Miami 33, Clemson 15Va Tech 25.8, Pitt 25.7!UConn 25.5, 'Cuse 25.4!Full list: t.co/MU1KsDQwmb pic.twitter.com/2pPu0AdCFF
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 27, 2026While ESPN’s SP+ has its own thoughts on the Alabama-Mississippi State game, here is what the Kalshi market is currently saying about the Week 5 showdown between SEC ranked teams in Starkville:
Prediction Markets Alabama at Mississippi State Learn more about Prediction Markets Kalshi Alabama 69% Mississippi St. 32% PredictESPN’s SP+ predicts final score of Alabama-Mississippi State game Saturday Down South.
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