The first month of the 2026 college football season is in the books.
As the calendar flips to October, it’s a good time to take stock of what we saw over the first 4 weeks of the campaign. Here are 3 observations from September in the SEC:
Faizon Brandon’s start to the season has been worrisome
A few weeks ago, Faizon Brandon and Keelon Russell looked like they were on relatively equal footing as far as their status in the SEC. That’s no longer the case. Russell might finish the season as the SEC’s best quarterback and I’m not sure Brandon will still be Tennessee’s starter by the end of the year.
The reason is that Brandon’s advanced metrics against P4 competition look incredibly bleak. Here’s what his peripherals look like for all 4 games so far:
Faizon Brandon Tennessee: 2026 game log OpponentCPOEEPA/DBSuccess %Sack% FurmanSep 5+12.6%+0.7650.0%5.6% Georgia TechSep 12-14.7%+0.3436.4%4.5% Kennesaw StateSep 19+7.1%+0.2651.9%3.7% TexasSep 26-5.3%-0.4626.3%23.7% 2026 season93 att-0.7%+0.1039.0%11.4% CPOE=completion % over expected. EPA/DB=expected points added per dropback. Success %=passing success rate.Data: CollegeFootballData.comNotice the immense drop-off against Georgia Tech and Texas? His CPOE and passing success rate both fall off a cliff against better athletes.
Brandon is a true freshman, so no one expected he’d immediately be a top-level SEC quarterback. But these numbers suggest he’s on track to finish the year as one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the nation.
At a minimum, Brandon has to improve his pocket mobility and sack avoidance. He’s taken sacks on over 11% of his drop-backs this year. Tennessee’s O-Line shares some culpability in that, but a large chunk of the responsibility lies with Brandon.
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Jadan Baugh is every bit the monster you think he is
Sometimes, especially early in a season, high-volume playmakers like Jadan Baugh get lionized into something they’re not.
Rest assured, Baugh is every bit as good as you think. He’s rushed for an SEC-best 600 yards and 11 touchdowns so far this season and the advanced metrics are even more impressed than those gaudy surface stats would suggest.
No running back in the nation marries volume and efficiency better than Baugh did in September. Here’s a graph showing how much of an outlier he is:
Who’s getting the ball, and who’s doing something with it?
FBS running backs with 40+ rushes. Dashed lines mark the medians. Dot size shows total rushes.
2026 FBS running backs: usage rate vs. PPA per rush Scatter plot of 112 running backs with at least 40 rushes. Usage rate on the horizontal axis, predicted points added per rush on the vertical axis. Dashed lines mark the medians of 19.4 percent usage and 0.14 PPA per rush. 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Productive workhorses Volume without efficiency Efficient, limited role Usage rate (share of all team plays) PPA per rush Cam Cook (West Virginia): 34.4% usage, 0.02 PPA/rush, 98 rushes Nate Sheppard (Duke): 33.5% usage, 0.34 PPA/rush, 89 rushes Dylan Riley (Boise State): 32.2% usage, 0.26 PPA/rush, 89 rushes Caleb Hawkins (Oklahoma State): 27.6% usage, 0.10 PPA/rush, 83 rushes Jamal Roberts (Missouri): 31.9% usage, 0.02 PPA/rush, 83 rushes Jadan Baugh (Florida): 28.7% usage, 0.53 PPA/rush, 78 rushes Antwan Raymond (Rutgers): 29.1% usage, 0.26 PPA/rush, 78 rushes King Miller (USC): 22.2% usage, 0.23 PPA/rush, 77 rushes Dilin Jones (LSU): 24.4% usage, 0.00 PPA/rush, 76 rushes Jabari Bates (San José State): 26.9% usage, 0.02 PPA/rush, 74 rushes Dawson Pendergrass (Baylor): 22.7% usage, 0.10 PPA/rush, 72 rushes Fluff Bothwell (Mississippi State): 25.9% usage, 0.29 PPA/rush, 72 rushes Adam Mohammed (California): 26.8% usage, 0.09 PPA/rush, 72 rushes Steven Robinson (Southern Miss): 26.2% usage, 0.14 PPA/rush, 72 rushes Lee Beebe (Indiana): 29.5% usage, 0.15 PPA/rush, 70 rushes Jeremy Payne (TCU): 26.1% usage, -0.02 PPA/rush, 70 rushes Justice Haynes (Georgia Tech): 28.2% usage, 0.15 PPA/rush, 69 rushes Ethan Ervin (Florida Atlantic): 21.0% usage, 0.12 PPA/rush, 67 rushes Micah Ford (Stanford): 25.0% usage, -0.01 PPA/rush, 66 rushes Fame Ijeboi (Purdue): 23.7% usage, 0.18 PPA/rush, 66 rushes Camryn Edwards (Michigan State): 24.9% usage, -0.01 PPA/rush, 64 rushes Ousmane Kromah (Florida State): 26.4% usage, 0.15 PPA/rush, 63 rushes PJ Martin (South Alabama): 21.1% usage, 0.12 PPA/rush, 63 rushes Torrance Burgess Jr. (Texas State): 21.9% usage, 0.29 PPA/rush, 62 rushes Roderick Robinson II (UAB): 23.9% usage, 0.05 PPA/rush, 60 rushes George Pettaway (James Madison): 23.2% usage, 0.13 PPA/rush, 59 rushes Keveun Mason (Temple): 28.1% usage, 0.18 PPA/rush, 59 rushes Kendrick Raphael (SMU): 21.8% usage, 0.30 PPA/rush, 59 rushes Gideon Davidson (Clemson): 23.8% usage, 0.22 PPA/rush, 58 rushes Lanear McCrary Jr. (Georgia State): 21.2% usage, 0.14 PPA/rush, 58 rushes Scottre Humphrey (New Mexico): 22.7% usage, 0.15 PPA/rush, 57 rushes Javion Kinnard (San Diego State): 23.2% usage, 0.09 PPA/rush, 56 rushes Jai'Den Thomas (UNLV): 20.9% usage, 0.12 PPA/rush, 56 rushes Matthew Fuller (South Carolina): 19.5% usage, 0.15 PPA/rush, 56 rushes James Jones (New Mexico State): 21.6% usage, 0.13 PPA/rush, 56 rushes Anthony Carrie (Florida International): 19.4% usage, -0.08 PPA/rush, 56 rushes Rueben Owens (Texas A&M): 19.5% usage, -0.03 PPA/rush, 56 rushes Makhi Hughes (Houston): 20.7% usage, 0.13 PPA/rush, 56 rushes Gavin Griffin (Troy): 18.9% usage, 0.00 PPA/rush, 54 rushes Austyn Dendy (Bowling Green): 24.4% usage, -0.39 PPA/rush, 54 rushes Telly Johnson Jr. (Northern Illinois): 21.1% usage, 0.02 PPA/rush, 54 rushes Devon Rice (Hawai'i): 18.6% usage, 0.17 PPA/rush, 54 rushes Jayden Scott (NC State): 19.9% usage, 0.19 PPA/rush, 54 rushes Jaylin Carter (Memphis): 22.0% usage, 0.34 PPA/rush, 54 rushes CJ Baxter Jr. (Kentucky): 22.7% usage, 0.26 PPA/rush, 53 rushes Jahiem White (North Texas): 18.6% usage, 0.42 PPA/rush, 52 rushes Aneyas Williams (Notre Dame): 21.1% usage, 0.24 PPA/rush, 52 rushes D.J. Crowther (South Florida): 48.1% usage, 0.35 PPA/rush, 51 rushes DeSean Bishop (Tennessee): 18.5% usage, 0.25 PPA/rush, 51 rushes Aiden Flora (Iowa State): 21.6% usage, 0.29 PPA/rush, 51 rushes Cameron Dickey (Texas Tech): 18.7% usage, 0.24 PPA/rush, 50 rushes Davian Jackson (Texas State): 17.7% usage, 0.15 PPA/rush, 50 rushes Bo Jackson (Ohio State): 19.4% usage, 0.14 PPA/rush, 50 rushes Iverson Howard (Maryland): 17.2% usage, 0.14 PPA/rush, 49 rushes Keenan Phillips (South Alabama): 16.4% usage, 0.18 PPA/rush, 49 rushes Gi'Bran Payne (Cincinnati): 18.9% usage, 0.29 PPA/rush, 49 rushes Wayshawn Parker (Utah): 18.8% usage, 0.37 PPA/rush, 49 rushes Turbo Richard (Indiana): 20.7% usage, 0.34 PPA/rush, 49 rushes Messiah Burch (Buffalo): 19.9% usage, 0.00 PPA/rush, 49 rushes Amareon Blue (Eastern Michigan): 15.7% usage, 0.19 PPA/rush, 49 rushes Jordon Davison (Oregon): 17.4% usage, 0.28 PPA/rush, 49 rushes DJ Scott (North Dakota State): 20.0% usage, 0.13 PPA/rush, 49 rushes Rodney Fields Jr. (Kansas State): 17.3% usage, 0.20 PPA/rush, 49 rushes Ajay Allen (Western Kentucky): 17.8% usage, -0.15 PPA/rush, 49 rushes Waymond Jordan (USC): 13.8% usage, 0.12 PPA/rush, 48 rushes Isaac Brown (Louisville): 18.4% usage, -0.13 PPA/rush, 48 rushes Wayne Knight (UCLA): 18.9% usage, 0.66 PPA/rush, 48 rushes Devin Roche (Old Dominion): 20.5% usage, -0.23 PPA/rush, 47 rushes Raleek Brown (Texas): 16.8% usage, 0.10 PPA/rush, 47 rushes Ca'Lil Valentine (Illinois): 20.1% usage, 0.08 PPA/rush, 47 rushes Kam Davis (Liberty): 18.9% usage, 0.40 PPA/rush, 47 rushes Elijah Faulkner (Massachusetts): 22.2% usage, -0.02 PPA/rush, 47 rushes Jalen Buckley (Western Michigan): 20.3% usage, 0.15 PPA/rush, 47 rushes Jaquari Lewis (App State): 18.4% usage, 0.19 PPA/rush, 47 rushes Daniel Hill (Alabama): 17.8% usage, 0.23 PPA/rush, 46 rushes Javen Jacobs (Utah State): 18.2% usage, -0.16 PPA/rush, 46 rushes Jo'Nathan Silver (Delaware): 18.0% usage, -0.05 PPA/rush, 46 rushes Will Henderson III (UTSA): 18.7% usage, 0.05 PPA/rush, 45 rushes Victor Rosa (Ohio): 18.4% usage, 0.19 PPA/rush, 45 rushes Lucky Sutton (San Diego State): 18.7% usage, 0.03 PPA/rush, 45 rushes Myles Mitchell (North Dakota State): 18.4% usage, 0.05 PPA/rush, 45 rushes Peyton Jones (Liberty): 18.1% usage, -0.15 PPA/rush, 45 rushes J'Koby Williams (Texas Tech): 16.8% usage, 0.29 PPA/rush, 45 rushes Sire Gaines (Boise State): 16.3% usage, 0.17 PPA/rush, 45 rushes Nolan James Jr. (Notre Dame): 18.3% usage, 0.23 PPA/rush, 45 rushes Damari Alston (Tulsa): 20.3% usage, 0.24 PPA/rush, 44 rushes Evan Dickens (Boston College): 18.0% usage, -0.03 PPA/rush, 44 rushes Damon Ferguson Jr. (Pittsburgh): 19.5% usage, 0.06 PPA/rush, 44 rushes Jordan Gant (Akron): 17.4% usage, -0.11 PPA/rush, 44 rushes Caden Knighten (Baylor): 13.6% usage, 0.00 PPA/rush, 43 rushes Jordan Marshall (Michigan): 18.1% usage, 0.11 PPA/rush, 43 rushes Kyson Brown (Arizona State): 22.2% usage, -0.07 PPA/rush, 43 rushes Jevon Edwards (Coastal Carolina): 17.9% usage, -0.08 PPA/rush, 42 rushes LJ Martin (BYU): 24.0% usage, 0.42 PPA/rush, 42 rushes Dierre Hill Jr. (Oregon): 14.9% usage, 0.07 PPA/rush, 42 rushes Johnnie Daniels (Tulane): 18.0% usage, 0.10 PPA/rush, 42 rushes Braylon McReynolds (UAB): 16.7% usage, 0.11 PPA/rush, 42 rushes Alton McCaskill (Sam Houston): 15.8% usage, -0.11 PPA/rush, 42 rushes Jamal Rule (Nebraska): 18.0% usage, 0.71 PPA/rush, 41 rushes Daylan Smothers (Texas): 14.6% usage, 0.20 PPA/rush, 41 rushes Ty Clark III (Wake Forest): 16.3% usage, 0.04 PPA/rush, 41 rushes Durell Robinson (Colorado State): 15.5% usage, 0.23 PPA/rush, 41 rushes Connor Walendzak (Toledo): 15.9% usage, 0.16 PPA/rush, 41 rushes Deuce Lawrence (Wake Forest): 16.3% usage, 0.05 PPA/rush, 41 rushes Samuel Harris (Wyoming): 18.1% usage, 0.22 PPA/rush, 41 rushes Jeremiah Cobb (Auburn): 14.9% usage, 0.14 PPA/rush, 41 rushes James Peoples (Penn State): 15.5% usage, 0.09 PPA/rush, 41 rushes Lloyd Avant (Oklahoma): 16.9% usage, -0.07 PPA/rush, 41 rushes Tyvonn Byars (Rice): 16.3% usage, 0.20 PPA/rush, 40 rushes Jekail Middlebrook (Virginia): 14.3% usage, 0.12 PPA/rush, 40 rushes DAndre Hardeman Jr. (Rice): 16.3% usage, 0.03 PPA/rush, 40 rushes Jason Patterson (Kentucky): 17.2% usage, 0.44 PPA/rush, 40 rushes Cam Cook Cam Cook Nate Sheppard Nate Sheppard Dylan Riley Dylan Riley Jamal Roberts Jamal Roberts Jadan Baugh Jadan Baugh Austyn Dendy Austyn Dendy D.J. Crowther D.J. Crowther Wayne Knight Wayne Knight Jamal Rule Jamal Rule Usage rate=share of all team plays. PPA=predicted points added.Data: CollegeFootballData.comAmong qualifiers, Baugh is 3rd in the nation in EPA-per-rush and 8th in usage rate at 29%. The 2 running backs who are above Baugh in EPA-per-play, Duke’s Nate Sheppard and South Florida’s DJ Crowther, have faced much, much easier schedules to this point in the season.
If Baugh stays healthy, he looks likely to run away with the Doak Walker Award.
Oklahoma has an elite TE … and nothing else on offense
For the third consecutive season, Oklahoma’s offense looks to be broken. The Sooners’ latest offensive catastrophe was a 41-13 loss to Georgia that featured multiple back-breaking turnovers from John Mateer.
If there’s a silver lining, it’s that OU has unlocked a genuinely elite weapon in tight end Rocky Beers. The Colorado State standout arrived rather unceremoniously in Norman but has been the lone bright spot in an otherwise-putrid offense.
Beers is 4th among tight ends nationally at 0.61 EPA per target this season. He’s caught 82% of his targets overall and has an impressive 68% targeted success rate. Compare his numbers with the rest of Oklahoma’s receiving corps and you can see just how much of an outlier he is:
John Mateer Oklahoma: 2026 targets by receiver ReceiverTgtRecYdsSuccess %EPA/Tgt Isaiah Sategna312026741.9%+0.48 Rocky Beers221825568.2%+0.61 Trell Harris11711663.6%+0.79 Elijah Thomas943822.2%-0.20 Mackenzie Alleyne844025.0%+0.21 Lloyd Avant663150.0%+0.33 Hayden Hansen546480.0%+1.60 Parker Livingstone554580.0%+0.27 Tgt=targets. EPA/Tgt=expected points added per target. Green=above FBS average, red=below. FBS average success rate on targeted throws is 48%; FBS average EPA/Tgt is +0.43.Data: CollegeFootballData.comTrell Harris, the only other player there in green, has been limited this season due to injury and isn’t expected to be back for quite some time. Isaiah Sategna has a high volume of targets but a very low success rate. Tight end Hayden Hansen has been efficient with his opportunities, but not at a high enough volume to matter.
If Oklahoma is going to get anything going offensively this season, Beers is likely to be the biggest reason why.
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