Shortly before 1am on Sunday, police received a tip-off about three vans heading toward the RAF Fairford base in Gloucestershire. Within hours, five men were arrested in the village of Whelford – initially under the Explosives Act, and later on suspicion of plotting a terrorist attack. As officers later revealed, the group had been under surveillance for some time.
US President Donald Trump’s remarks on the matter suggested close co-operation between British and American intelligence around the base, which hosts the US Air Force’s 501st Combat Support Wing, and has been a forward operating base for US strikes against Iran.
The authorities are keeping an open mind about who is responsible for the plot, with inquiries ongoing into possible involvement by parties including Iran and Russia. Iran is understood to be the leading suspect. But regardless of who dispatched the vans, the real story lies in the modus operandi.
Hostile states have learned to exploit existing grievances within British society; they operate through networks of multiple intermediaries who often do not even know who actually commissioned them. An attack can be inspired by a state, linked to it, supported by it or directed by it. The UK can counter this only by clearly assigning responsibility and addressing the grievances that these networks exploit for their own ends.
Since the US and Israel became embroiled in a war with Iran in February, Fairford has served as a base for American B-1 bombers. In July, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) declared the base a legitimate target. A motive, therefore, exists – though a motive is the easiest thing to find.
Russia also possesses both motive and means. In March 2024, young Britons recruited by the Wagner Group set fire to a warehouse owned by a Ukrainian national in Leyton. In July, the Government designated the “GRU Volunteer Corps” a threat; according to the Government, this group is used by Russian military intelligence to recruit individuals online for acts of sabotage and arson. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood stated that Iran and Russia were using “proxies and thugs” to carry out their dirty work on British soil.
What makes Iran unique is its modus operandi. The Islamic Republic is a network state. Power flows through parallel institutions – ranging from the IRGC and the clerical establishment to the formal state – linked primarily by a narrative of resistance.
Abroad, the country operates in concentric circles. The Quds Force (the elite branch of the IRGC overseeing foreign operations) and Ministry of Intelligence set the country’s agenda at the core. Ideological partners such as the Axis of Resistance – a network of armed non-state actors, financiers, ideologues and logisticians – cluster around them. Further out are criminals paid to carry out specific tasks. On the outermost fringe are individuals whose grievances align with Tehran’s goals, even though they harbour no loyalty or connection to the regime. It is here where “useful idiots” come in – those who unknowingly or naively become surrogates of Iran’s agenda.
This model is evolving. In 2018, Iranian diplomat Assadollah Assadi was caught plotting a bombing against an opposition rally near Paris attended by five British MPs. Confronted with the costs of having its official exposed, Iran increasingly looked for proxies.
An Iranian man walks past an anti-US billboard in central Tehran (Photo: Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty)This spring, a previously unknown group claimed responsibility for seven attacks in the UK, including the arson of four ambulances belonging to Jewish-run volunteer emergency service Hatzola in Golders Green on 23 March. The British Government said the Quds Force orchestrated these actions with near certainty. In October 2025, MI5 said it had recorded at least 20 potentially lethal, Iran-backed plots targeting individuals in the UK in the previous year.
What actors like Iran and Russia are looking for in the UK are individuals with grievances ready to be ripened.
That is where cultivation or ripening of networks comes in. Millions of Britons oppose the US-Israeli war against Iran, which international lawyers deem illegal.
I do not believe that anyone opposing this war, which has undermined British interests and values in the Middle East, is a potential “useful idiot” for Iran. Yet, the war expands the pool from which a hostile army can select a handful of recruits.
For years, ministers ignored public anger over Britain’s role in the Middle East, even as Washington and the Israeli government trampled on British interests and values. A shift in the Government’s stance regarding the West Bank is long overdue. Meanwhile, the war has led to attacks on Britain’s Gulf partners and the blockade of vital shipping lanes. Unease about this extends far beyond the political left.
The sentiment of abandonment by mainstream politics and discourse is ripe across the political spectrum in the UK. It creates communities receptive to mobilising narratives and radical ideology – pushing a minority to take radical action.
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