The warning signs are coming in quickly from across the map—much on it from red states where President Trump won comfortably just two years ago. Outside groups backing the GOP are now spending in the millions on Senate races in once-safe territories like Nebraska and Kansas; South Carolina, Mississippi, South Dakota, and Arkansas are all drawing renewed attention amid fears of a historically massive blue wave.
Notably absent from this plan were North Carolina and Georgia—two Senate seats Republicans were touting as major targets last year. Now some are writing those off as all but won by Democrats Roy Cooper and Jon Ossoff. An operative familiar with Scott’s thinking stressed that the NRSC’s strategy remains fluid until Election Day and noted that outside groups could still step in to back up their candidates in those states.
Iowa Republicans on the ballot are not being subtle about their efforts to put some distance between their fortunes and the MAGA Movement. Rep. Zach Nunn voted last week to curb Trump’s deeply unpopular war against Iran—a month after campaigning with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who is running that war. Rep. Ashley Hinson, the GOP nominee for the open Senate seat, is running ads touting her work with Democrats, not her endorsement from Trump.
There’s similar scrambling in Texas, where a super PAC blessed by Senate Majority Leader John Thune is now on track to spend more than $100 million, an add on of $35 million to the $65 million the group had already booked in advertising to boost Ken Paxton’s bid against James Talarico. The total price tag for keeping the Senate seat is on track to approach $200 million just on the GOP side.
Even Speaker Mike Johnson has grown frustrated with Trump and his constant introduction of tumult in the political ether. During his Sept. 13 appearance on NBC’s Meet the Press, Johnson appeared obviously annoyed as he kept getting asked about Trump’s fresh promise to send every American adult a $5,000 check if Republicans keep their House and Senate majorities. “I guess we’re going to spend the whole segment talking about this one issue,” Johnson said. “I want to talk about what we’ve actually done and not ideas on the table.”
The dynamic has left Republican strategists deeply frustrated. They have plenty of cash, succeeded (for the most part) in recruiting solid candidates, and are facing an opposition party that has spent much of the year fighting its own coalitions. Yet the environment still seems to be trending bluer than anyone anticipated.
A simmering fear is that the trendlines may get even worse in the coming weeks. As one Republican strategist told me this week, Election Day cannot come quickly enough.
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