As Polo moves northwest, it is expected to drive torrential rainfall on parts of Mexico's southwest coast. Although the storm is not predicted to make direct landfall, the NHC has warned that heavy rain may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, as well as extremely hazardous ocean conditions.
How El Niño contributed
"Rapid intensification of tropical cyclones is something we see several times per year across the globe," Julian Heming, an environmental scientist and researcher at the U.K.'s Met Office, told Live Science in an email. "The main requirements are high sea temperatures, low wind shear and upper air conditions which allow air to escape quickly from the top of the hurricane."
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that develops in the tropical Pacific Ocean, typically every two to seven years. It begins when waters in the eastern tropical Pacific become unusually warm. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration identifies El Niño conditions when these waters are at least 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit (0.5 degrees Celsius) above average, alongside changes in winds, surface pressure and rainfall that are consistent with the phenomenon.
The unusually warm ocean supplied Hurricane Polo with abundant heat and moisture, while very moist air and weak winds higher in the atmosphere allowed thunderstorms to organize and strengthen without being disrupted, Hemming said.
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The latest data from the World Meteorological Organization suggests that the current El Niño could be the strongest on record and last until at least February 2027. This will lead to more extreme weather, pushing some areas into drought while others experience stronger storms, rainfall and flooding.
If the system moves northward, Southern California could see intense rainfall and coastal regions may experience hazardous rip currents and large swells. However, "There is currently a lot of uncertainty in the long term as to whether Polo will move further out to sea or turn north-eastwards towards Mexico," Heming said.
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