Week 3 of the college football season in the books.
Each week in this story, I attempt to analyze 5 prevailing narratives coming out of the weekend and see if they can be supported or refuted via various advanced metrics. Last week, I analyzed topics such as Oklahoma’s offensive woes, Kamario Taylor’s immense upside and Oregon’s numerous concerns, among others.
Here are 5 college football ideas I’m buying or selling after Week 3:
Selling: LSU is still a top-tier CFP contender
I’m much lower on LSU’s ability to make the College Football Playoff given its loss to Ole Miss on Saturday night in Oxford.
One reason is purely mechanical — LSU likely needs to go 10-2 in order to make the CFP and it already has 1 loss. A 9-3 bid is theoretically possible, but struggles from teams on LSU’s schedule like Clemson, Auburn and Texas A&M will make that a much tougher case on selection day.
The other reason is perhaps more of a concern about this specific iteration of LSU football — are we sure the offense is elite? I don’t think the Tigers are bad on offense, but they’re currently 55th nationally in early-down success rate and have a quarterback in Sam Leavitt who seems to be much better with his legs than his arm.
When you look at LSU’s schedule late in the year, it’s hard not to wince. The Tigers play Alabama and Texas at home in early November followed by a trip to Knoxville. That’s to say nothing of upcoming contests against Texas A&M and Kentucky, which are certainly losable if the offense doesn’t play well.
The market has settled into an interesting place with regards to LSU’s CFP hopes and its win projection. On Kalshi, LSU’s odds of winning 10+ games have dipped to 35%. However, the Tigers’ CFP qualification odds are sitting at 42%. I’ll fade the latter since it’s a bit cheaper.
Pick: LSU to NOT qualify for CFP (60% on Kalshi)
Prediction Markets College Football Playoff Qualifiers 2026 Learn more about Prediction Markets Kalshi Notre Dame 84% Georgia 81% Miami (FL) 81% Indiana 79% Ohio St. 74% Texas 70% Texas Tech 56% Ole Miss 54% Florida 34% Mississippi St. 28% PredictBuying: Arkansas fans are right
Arkansas fans deployed a not-so-silent protest this week as they largely didn’t show up for an inevitable beat down at the hands of Georgia. This was the first SEC home game of the Ryan Silverfield era and the crowd was about as sparsely-populated as it gets for an SEC contest.
Razorback fans are clearly fed-up with the state of the football program and the athletic department at-large, with many pointing out that athletic director Hunter Yurachek — who has been in charge since 2017 despite 0 seasons of an above .500 record in SEC play — was the target of the fans’ ire.
I tend to agree with Arkansas fans. From a resources standpoint, Arkansas is near the bottom of the league and there’s no sign of that changing anytime soon. That’s why Silverfield was such a dubious hire in the first place — he had arguably the most resources of any AAC team during his team at Memphis and still produced underwhelming results.
It’s still early, and Silverfield probably shouldn’t be judged too harshly until next season, but the early returns are about as bad as it gets. The Razorbacks are outside of the top 100 in EPA-per-play on both offense and defense. The offense gets a little better after adjusting for opponent strength, but it’s still pretty bleak. I think Arkansas is clearly the worst team in the SEC this year and is staring down the barrel of a 1-11 season.
Yurachek has now made 3 head coaching hires: Chad Morris, who is arguably the worst coach in modern SEC history with an 0-16 record in league play; Sam Pittman, who had a solid run that peaked with 9 wins in 2021; and Silverfield, who is off to a horrendous start.
Selling: Miami should be the runaway favorite in the ACC
I don’t think Miami has been quite as dominant as advertised so far this season. We saw enough red flags in the Canes’ weeknight win over Wake Forest to warrant pressing the “pause” button on Miami’s hype.
The biggest concern — Miami’s second-half offense against the Demon Deacons. After scoring a touchdown on its first drive of the third quarter, Miami regressed into 4 consecutive 3-and-outs — a streak that was only broken by a 4-play drive that resulted in a field goal attempt and a 6-play drive to run out the remainder of the clock.
In total, Miami averaged just 2.6 yards per play in the second half but held on to a 33-20 win thanks to Wake’s struggles on late downs.
Another reason why I’d be interested in fading Miami at the right price? Louisville looks like a real threat, as does Virginia Tech. The Cardinals appear to have a really good quarterback in Lincoln Kienholz to go along with a stout defense. The Hokies may have one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the nation in Ethan Grunkemeyer, who is running a 13.5% CPOE through 3 weeks. SMU and Pitt are also peripheral ACC contenders as the calendar shifts toward late September.
I think the most likely outcome is still Miami winning the ACC championship, but I don’t think its odds should be greater than 60% or so. And with Notre Dame on the schedule, I think Miami’s win projection on Kalshi is currently too high.
Pick: Miami under 10.5 wins (34% on Kalshi)
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Buying: UCLA’s offense is really good
Don’t look now, but UCLA might have one of the 10 best offenses in the nation in 2026. It hasn’t taken Bob Chesney very long at all to get things humming in Westwood. The Bruins have played 3 decent FBS teams — Cal, San Diego State and Purdue — and are top-10 nationally in offensive EPA.
The running game is doing a lot of work, led by Wayne Knight. The former JMU star is No. 2 nationally in EPA-per-rush among qualified running backs. He’s also running an elite 51% first-down rate and a 0% stuff rate.
That stuff rate is also a credit to UCLA’s offensive line, which is lighting up various advanced metrics to start the year. UCLA leads the country in CollegeFootballData.com’s line yards per carry stat, which estimates rushing yards that can be attributable to a team’s offensive line.
Overall, UCLA is averaging 7.4 yards per play, which ranks in the top 20 nationally. That’s despite a pretty mediocre start from Nico Iamaleava, who has a negative completion percentage over expected so far in 2026. If Iamaleava’s efficiency improves at all, this is clearly an elite offense in the Big Ten.
This UCLA offense will make the long trip to Maryland this week. Both of these offenses are efficient, but their styles are very different. UCLA is one of the slower-tempo teams in the country so far in 2026 while the Terps are top-10 in plays per minute. I think taking the “over” is the play here — I expect Maryland will be able to move the ball on the Bruins, creating more possessions for this excellent UCLA offense.
Pick: UCLA-Maryland total over 58.5 points (50% on Kalshi)
Buying: The SEC’s next generation of quarterbacks is extremely exciting
There’s a very strong group of quarterbacks at the top of the sport in 2026, but there may be an even more exciting generation of younger signal-callers who are growing up quickly.
That’s especially true in the SEC with emerging talents such as Kamario Taylor, Keelon Russell, Faizon Brandon and Jared Curtis.
All 4 show up in the top 30 of my QB composite metric, which rewards efficiency, downfield aggressiveness and rushing effectiveness.
Taylor is perhaps already regarded as a top 10 quarterback nationally after leading Mississippi State to back-to-back road wins over Minnesota and South Carolina. A second-year player, Taylor won’t be eligible to enter the NFL Draft until 2028 but figures to be an early favorite to go No. 1 overall in that draft. Against power-conference opposition this year, Taylor has a 9% CPOE and an 81% rushing success rate.
Russell is another class of 2025 product who is emerging as an elite dual-threat option. He’s been exceptional on deep passes with a 35% CPOE on passes that travel 15+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage (P4 games only).
Brandon is a true freshman but has looked good in his first exposure to college football. Passing metrics such as CPOE, ADOT and deep attempt rate all grade out as at least above-average for Brandon. He’s also running a 68% rushing success rate and a solid 4.5% sack rate through his first 3 starts.
Curtis just earned his first career start this past Saturday but he has played in all 3 of Vandy’s games so far this season. The former 5-star QB stands out in his willingness to push the ball downfield with an ADOT of 11.7 yards and a deep-throw rate of 31% across 65 charted attempts. He also has the lowest sack rate (3%) of any of these quarterbacks I’ve mentioned.
Prediction Markets Who are the favorites to win the 2026 Heisman Trophy? Learn more about Prediction Markets Kalshi Trinidad Chambliss 24% Darian Mensah 16% Jeremiah Smith 10% CJ Carr 7% Arch Manning 5% Malachi Toney 4% Julian Sayin 3% Jayden Maiava 1% Dante Moore 1% PredictLike our coverage? Make SDS a preferred source in your searches!
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