We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League clash with our Fulham vs Man Utd prediction and preview. Can Michael Carrick ease the mounting pressure?
Fulham vs Man Utd: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer makes Manchester United favourites ahead of kick-off, with a win probability of 48.3% to Fulham’s 27.5%. Man Utd have lost only one of their last 21 Premier League matches against Fulham (W16 D4) – a 2-1 defeat at Old Trafford in February 2024. Fulham are enduring their longest winless start to a league season (D1 L3) since 2020-21, when they lost their opening six matches.Fulham will aim to record their first Premier League win this season and pile further pressure on Michael Carrick when Álvaro Arbeloa’s side welcome Manchester United to Craven Cottage on Sunday.
The Whites have failed to win any of their first four league matches and sit in 18th place, though they did earn their first point last weekend with a hard-fought 0-0 draw at Liverpool.
A dramatic opening-weekend defeat to Chelsea was followed by losses to Sunderland and Crystal Palace, before Arbeloa’s men held firm at Anfield last time out.
Despite that decent point at Liverpool, this is Fulham’s longest winless start to a league season since 2020-21, when they failed to win any of their opening six matches.
There is cause for optimism, though. Fulham followed up their draw at Liverpool with a 3-2 victory at West Ham in the third round of the EFL Cup on Wednesday to further boost confidence ahead of Sunday’s clash.
Man Utd, meanwhile, have blown hot and cold this season. They opened their campaign with just four points from games against Hull City, Ipswich Town and Everton, before suffering a controversial 1-0 derby loss to 10-man Manchester City last weekend.
Phil Foden’s first-half red card handed the Red Devils a major advantage, but they could not capitalise and were eventually punished by a contentious Erling Haaland goal that has dominated the discourse ever since.
To make matters worse, United fell to a 3-2 defeat against Brighton & Hove Albion in the third round of the EFL Cup on Wednesday despite taking a 2-0 lead inside the opening 10 minutes. It was the first time United had lost a home game in any competition having held a half-time lead (2-1) since May 1984 against Ipswich.
Carrick will know his side must respond quickly. Their total of four points from the opening Premier League matchdays (W1 D1 L2) is their joint fewest at this stage of a season, along with 1992-93 and 2025-26.
On both of those occasions, though, they recovered strongly, finishing as champions in 1992-93 and third in 2025-26. That will offer some encouragement.
While results may not necessarily reflect it, United have started the campaign in pretty good attacking form. They have attempted 84 shots, more than any other team in the division and United’s highest total at this stage of a season on record since 2003-04.
Those shots equate to 8.3 expected goals (xG), with only Brighton (10.2) generating more across the first four matchdays.
Aside from a fairly timid display against City last Sunday, United have been creating plenty in the final third. Perhaps, then, Carrick’s side have been a little unlucky to only have four points.
However, it’s been the opposite story for Fulham.
They have failed to score in 10 Premier League outings this year, more than any other side. At 42%, it’s the highest proportion of matches in which they’ve drawn a blank (10/24) in a calendar year since 2010 (also 42%; 16/38).
Arbeloa will, however, benefit from having nearly a full squad available as he looks to help Fulham turn a corner, with Benjamin Sesko netted a 94th-minute winner at Old Trafford in February.
Fulham vs Man Utd Prediction
Manchester United may have endured a mixed start to the season, but the Opta supercomputer still gives them a 48.3% chance of taking all three points in west London.
Fulham, meanwhile, came out on top in 27.5% of the supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-match simulations. A draw made up the remaining 24.2%.
Fulham vs Man Utd Predicted Lineups
Fulham: Bernd Leno, Timothy Castagne, David Affengruber, Calvin Bassey, Antonee Robinson, Sander Berge, Shea Charles, Josh King, Oscar Bobb, Alex Iwobi, Gonzalo García.
Head Coach: Álvaro Arbeloa
Manchester United: Senne Lammens, Diogo Dalot, Harry Maguire, Lisandro Martínez, Patrick Dorgu, Kobbie Mainoo, Youri Tielemans, Bruno Fernandes, Bryan Mbeumo, Marcus Rashford, Matheus Cunha.
Head Coach: Michael Carrick
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 16,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world, and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Sunday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Fulham vs Man Utd Prediction: Premier League Preview Opta Analyst.
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