It’s time for Week 3 upset picks.
Last week was a bit of a heartbreaker from a results standpoint. We got Michigan +203 over the line, but just missed out on Iowa State as a +488 underdog beating Iowa. Kansas and Memphis were also competitive into the third quarter, but ran out of gas.
College football upset picks
Let’s dive in. As usual, odds listed below are the best price from college football prediction markets:
Houston over Texas Tech
This is a numbers play for me — Texas Tech just hasn’t been good enough to justify being favored by more than a touchdown against a solid Houston team. I think the Cougars have the better coaching staff and may have the better offense overall. The Red Raiders are currently 103rd nationally in yards per carry despite playing Oregon State and Abilene Christian to open up the season. The defense hasn’t been good either (69th in yards per play allowed).
Pick: Houston to win (27% on Kalshi) | Implied odds: +270
Mississippi State over South Carolina
This one is being billed as the Kamario Taylor-LaNorris Sellers bowl. It’s also a matchup between offensive play-callers that are very familiar with one another — Mississippi State coach Jeff Lebby is married to the sister of South Carolina offensive coordinator Kendal Briles. I’m backing the Bulldogs here because I’m much higher on Taylor than I am on Sellers. I also think we saw a very high level of play out of Mississippi State on the road in Week 2 and I think most of what we saw will be repeatable in Columbia.
Pick: Mississippi State to win (39% on Kalshi) | Implied odds: +156
North Carolina over Clemson
North Carolina has more than its fair share of issues, but the Tar Heels have been far more organized than Clemson has been on the field so far in 2026. I think bringing Chad Morris back to be Clemson’s offensive coordinator is proving to be the disastrous decision it appeared to be at the time. Clemson’s elite defensive talent is mostly gone, too. Even in Death Valley, I think this game should be close to a pick ’em. Since the start of 2023, Clemson is just 7-5 straight up (and 5-7 ATS) in home ACC games.
Pick: North Carolina to win (40% on Novig) | Implied odds: +150
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Colorado over Northwestern
I think Colorado should be favored here. Northwestern has only played 1 game so far this season, and it was against South Dakota State. The Wildcats allowed almost 5 yards per play against the Jackrabbits and quarterback Aidan Chiles completed just 14 of 24 passes. I think there are a couple situational factors to explain why Northwestern is favored — the Wildcats are coming off of a bye and they’re at home. However, I’m not sure how much credit to give them for the rest advantage this early in the season (Colorado played an FCS team last week) and the home-field advantage factor should be minimal considering their brand new stadium doesn’t open for a few more weeks.
Pick: Colorado to win (38% on Kalshi) | Implied odds: +163
Stanford over Duke
Duke got a lot of credit for beating Illinois last week, but what if the Fighting Illini are much worse than expected? I don’t think the Blue Devils are good enough to be 3-to-1 favorites over any P4 team. That includes a Stanford program that will be traveling across the country for this ACC tilt. The Cardinal got smoked by Miami in Week 1, but have had the week off to recover ahead of this trip to the East Coast. I liked what we saw from Stanford’s offense in Week 0 against Hawai’i. I think Duke’s defense is probably closer to Hawai’i than it is to Miami.
Pick: Stanford to win (25% on Novig) | +300
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Week 3 Upset Alert: Predicting 5 money line favorites who are in danger Saturday Down South.
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