“What a job he did tonight,” President Donald Trump beamed at his deputy, JD Vance. The Republican convention in Dallas was meant to focus attention on the midterm elections, but turned out to be a warm-up for Vance’s presumptive coronation as the 2028 GOP presidential nominee.
The final day of the gathering was all about Vance. He told party activists at a closed-door breakfast meeting that his morning began with a 6am phone from the boss. “JD are you awake?” Trump had asked, before going on to sketch out the themes of the day to his underling.
The audio of that meeting, leaked to several US publications, showed Vance got the message. “We’ve got to nationalise this election, we’ve got to talk about all the crazy things Democrats are doing,” he said, according to Politico. The morning audience rewarded him with chants of “48, 48”. If Vance succeeds Trump he will be the 48th US president.
That night, the Vice-President was on his feet in front of a pumped-up crowd at the American Airlines Center, basking once again in cheers of “JD” and “48”. Dressed in the same blue suit and red tie as Trump, he looked slimmer, slicker and sleeker – ready and willing to inherit the Maga mantle.
The Democrats were the “party of hatred”, Vance said, warming to his theme. “They’re the party that despises America and the people who built it.” The Republicans in contrast, were the party of faith and family. “Stay the hell away from our kids,” he threatened Democrats.
It’s not too soon to discuss the 2028 presidential election. The midterms, on 3 November, are less than two months away. The day they end, the campaign for Vance’s nomination will begin in earnest.
This autumn’s contest doesn’t really count, as far as Trump is concerned. Ideally, the Republicans will manage to keep their majority in Congress. Trump hopes his offer of a $5,000 bung to all American voters will do the job and bring disaffected Republicans and independents back into the fold.
If this ploy fails, Trump seems unfazed. “I will end up being a blocker – I’ll block all their bad stuff for two years,” he told Fox News. “I’ll probably be able to make deals with them [the Democrats]. They are going to want some stuff. You make deals. It’s one of those things,” he shrugged.
What matters to the Great Narcissist is his legacy. Feeling his age, at last, the 80-year-old President appears more willing to hand on the baton to Vance, a political shape-shifter that Trump thinks he can continue to manipulate with the help of his raucous, loyal and intimidating Maga base.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said recently he had “no plans” to run for president and skipped the convention. Friends of Pete Hegseth, the Secretary of War, who was also absent, have been talking up his prospects in the event of a vacancy. But with the Iran War stalled – or going backwards following the Houthis’s seizure of a strategic Red Sea port and Iranian strikes on US warplanes in Jordan – Vance, an alleged peace-seeker, should be able to outflank the bumptious Hegseth.
I say “alleged” because every public pronouncement by Vance has supported Trump’s war effort. But there have been briefings to the contrary since the war’s inception, culminating in a New York Times story about how he has been beefing up his national security credentials and building his own back channel to US military top brass.
“Mr. Vance came away from some of his conversations with deep concerns about the overall strategy and the prospects for success, according to people who spoke to him,” the publication reported.
We’re told Vance signalled these concerns about the course of the war to Trump, presumably lest he appear disloyal. In Dallas, he invoked the memory of the assassinated youth leader Charlie Kirk to convey his own personal anti-war message. “Charlie hated war,” Vance said. “What I’m asking you to do is do what Charlie did: do not throw the baby out with the bathwater. Don’t give the country over to a bunch of crazy people because you happen to disagree with us on a policy issue here or there.”
This public-private dance will give Vance flexibility and cover during his presidential campaign if the war goes from bad to worse. Being the voice of Kirk, the former head of Turning Point USA, with chapters across the US, will also give him an organisation strength that no Republican primary rival should be able to match. Additionally, Vance is also building up a significant war chest through long-established friendship with Silicon Valley tech bros, entrepreneurs and lawyers.
As finance chair of the Republican National Committee, he has brought in over $60m in donations for the midterms, giving him the added bonus of access to a wide range of potential donors for his own future ambitions. Vance’s aim is to intimidate the competition and see off rivals before the race even starts. Even he recognises how presumptuous that is for a relative political newbie. In Dallas, he marvelled at how far he had progressed since he was a callow senator, who was suddenly tapped to be Trump’s running mate. “I’d been in politics for all of a year and a half,” he said.
As the famous advert for Virginia Slims cigarettes used to say patronisingly about women, “You’ve come a long way, baby.” He really has. But Maga don’t need Vance to be bigger or better, or more of a showman than Trump. They want Trump and more Trump, but will settle for his Vice-President. If necessary.
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