ROCHESTER, N.Y. – Though Monday has seen persistent widespread rainfall, and downpours at times, showers will decrease in coverage through the evening. However, high humidity will support more scattered showers developing through the overnight hours. Now that the slow-moving warm front has moved through Western New York, humid air has started to move in from the lower Great Lakes. This increased humidity and lasting overcast skies will keep temperatures overnight in the upper-60s. Winds remain out of the south/southwest between 5 to 10 mph. Intermittent showers will continue into Tuesday morning.
Tuesday will offer more dry time than Monday. However, that slightly drier weather could accompany some breaks in cloud coverage that may lead to an increased amount of solar heating and instability for storms to develop in the afternoon and evening. High temperatures have been fluctuating for Tuesday, due to the uncertainty in the amount of cloud cover we will see through the day. However, it is likely high temperatures will be in the low-80s with dew points in the low-70s. Overall, it will be a very humid day.
As for our storm chances – they are low, but it is possible to see some isolated stronger storms on Tuesday. Since current data continues to suggest that overall storm coverage will be scarce and the chance for strong storms is relatively low, we are staying green on the Threat Tracker tomorrow. However, it will be important to check back in with us through Tuesday morning, especially if you have any plans in the evening. Additionally, though the chance of these storms are low, it is important to note that a few could contain gusty winds, heavy downpours, and even some hail. We will continue to keep an eye on incoming high-resolution data through this evening and issue a Yellow Alert if storm development becomes increasingly likely.
Our storm chances peak on Wednesday and last through Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. It is possible that a Yellow Alert will be issued for Wednesday and Wednesday night as storm coverage looks more widespread than Tuesday. We will likely see a greater chance for scattered strong to severe storms with gusty winds, hail, and heavy rain. It is also worth mentioning, that the accumulation of rainfall through Thursday will likely put some stress on drainage as the ground becomes increasingly oversaturated and runoff becomes increasingly more likely. The Weather Prediction Center’s Excessive Rainfall outlook has Rochester, the Finger Lakes and much of the Southern Tier in a marginal chance for isolated flash flooding (5% risk area) through Wednesday.
First Alert Weather: Widespread showers become more scattered through Monday evening; tracking isolated storms Tuesday WHEC.com.
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