Russia has warned the United Kingdom and France they are “playing with fire” by providing Ukraine with classified blueprints to manufacture its own long-range missiles.
In the wake of Andy Burnham’s decision to hand Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky the means to produce Storm Shadow missiles, Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, hinted the UK could be targeted in response.
While Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, later appeared to walk back the rhetoric, Zakharova’s comments were notable as they came just days after CIA boss, John Ratcliffe, made an unannounced visit to Moscow.
Neither the Pentagon, nor the White House have confirmed the reason for the visit, but it has been widely reported Ratcliffe made the trip to directly warn Russia against launching an attack on a NATO country.
Putin has been weighing such an attack in order to help break the stalemate in Ukraine and could sense an opportunity as stocks of vital United States-made Patriot interceptors reach potentially critical levels.
Why is Russia threatening the UK?
Russian officials have been steadily upping their rhetoric toward the UK and other European allies of Ukraine over the past few months.
Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s oil refining industry and major retailer Wildberries have increasingly brought the war to the doorstep of ordinary Russians, prompting the Kremlin to seek distractions.
Putin has been further enraged by the UK and France’s decision to provide Ukraine with blueprints to expand its long-range missile capability.
While it will likely take years for the Ukrainian defence manufacturing base to produce significant quantities of UK-designed Storm Shadow missiles and their French equivalent, the ability for Kyiv to inflict long-term damage to Russian industry presents a fresh and difficult challenge for the Kremlin.
Russia has also stepped up its threats toward the UK in the face of new measures to combat Moscow’s so called “shadow fleet” of cargo vessels, through which the country transports sanctioned goods.
The UK has joined other European nations in taking stronger action to track and intercept shadow fleet tankers as a means of inflicting economic pain on Russia in order to curb its invasion efforts.
Could a shortage of interceptors leave Europe exposed?
While the Kremlin has focused more of its ire on the UK, any strike outside Ukraine is more likely to target another European nation.
Lithuania, a NATO member and former Soviet nation, is viewed as Putin’s most likely pick, due to its border with Poland along the “Suwalki Gap”.
Putin has been enraged by the UK and France’s decision to provide Ukraine with blueprints to expand its long-range missile capability. (Photo: Gavriil Grigorov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)The 60 mile strip of land is all that separates Belarus, a close Russian ally, from Kaliningrad, Russia’s nuclear armed enclave on the Baltic Sea.
Should Russia seize the territory it would effectively isolate Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia from the rest of Europe and lay the groundwork for future aggression against all three NATO members.
It is not known whether Ratcliffe’s visit to Moscow occurred because the CIA chief had been given specific intelligence about such a scenario, but Donald Trump appeared to confirm US concerns over an attack were discussed.
“I don’t want to comment on that, but they’re not going to attack,” the President told reporters on Thursday when asked about Ratcliffe’s trip.
Adding to speculation over the Kremlin’s plans is a report from the Associated Press, which quoted an unnamed US defence official as saying the number of Patriot air-defence interceptors in Europe had fallen to “beyond critical” levels.
The report said another unnamed official had confirmed stocks of the vital missiles were low among both US and NATO troops in Europe.
US forces in Europe “definitely” do not have enough Patriots to counter any possible sustained ballistic missile attack, the American official added.
A lack of air defences could embolden the Kremlin, particularly given the US begun the process of withdrawing over 1,000 soldiers and their equipment from Lithuania in June.
While a replacement rotation is expected, Deividas Matulionis, the chief national security advisor to President Gitanas Nausėda, said at the time he could “not specify” the number of troops who would arrive to replace those departing.
Matulionis was also unable to provide a timeline for when additional US forces may arrive.
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