The New York Times reports that Trump told a gathering of GOP state attorneys general in New Orleans this spring that gambling businesses were attacking prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi to protect their own “monopolies.” Prediction markets already have oversight from the federal government, Trump said, according to four anonymous sources cited by the Times.
Trump was hired by Kalshi in January last year as an adviser and is on the board of Polymarket, which he has a stake in through his investment firm 1789 Capital.
States are trying to recoup state tax revenue, estimated to be at least $2 billion a year according to the research group the Tax Foundation. The president, meanwhile, is encouraging prediction markets, touting the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a small agency that oversees derivatives, as being enough to regulate them.
The issue of prediction markets will likely reach the Supreme Court, with the White House highly likely to back the businesses from facing any legal restrictions. The fact that they involve betting on political and international events has already proven to be a major problem, but that doesn’t seem to deter the Trump administration.
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