With the 2026 FCS football season fast approaching, we’re making predictions for the Pioneer Football League. Drake has plenty of company as it seeks a fourth straight championship.
Leave it to the two non-scholarship leagues out of 13 overall conferences in FCS football to have the longest consecutive run of titles at three each.
Ah, but only Drake in the Pioneer Football League has been an outright champion not once, not twice, but three straight times. Harvard, meanwhile, has been part of three straight shared titles in the Ivy League.
Drake will find it hard to stay on top of the PFL standings this season. San Diego was a slight favorite in the preseason coaches poll, although Drake and St. Thomas were right behind in a race that also includes Dayton and Butler as realistic contenders. Notably, half of last year’s PFL games ended with a one-possession difference, which was the FCS conference high.
Each team capsule below pits FCS senior editor Craig Haley’s predicted order up against the Opta projection model. The supercomputer, if you will, incorporates TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster) and other factors while running thousands of simulations to determine an average number of wins and losses per team.
2026 Pioneer Football League Predictions
1. Dayton Flyers
2025 Record: 7-4, 5-3 (T-4th) Preseason TRACR Rank (PFL Rank): 86 (5) Opta Average Projected Wins: 5.7 (11 games) Circle the Date: Oct. 3 at DrakeThe Flyers feature a Walter Payton Award preseason nominee in all-purpose standout Gavin Lochow (118.0 AP yards per game) and a Buck Buchanan Award preseason nominee in defensive tackle Mirko Jaksic (33 tackles, 6.5 TFLs). But there’s plenty more returning, including quarterback Bryce Schondelmyer (16 TD passes and no interception in seven games), leading rusher Luke Hansen (1,544 career yards), wide receiver Michael Mussari (18.3 yards per catch) and linebackers Sam Schmiesing (80 tackles, 8.0 TFLs) and Joe Kingsbury (77 tackles, 4.0 sacks).
2. San Diego Toreros
2025 Record: 8-4, 6-2 (T-2nd) Preseason TRACR Rank (PFL Rank): 81 (4) Opta Average Projected Wins: 5.5 (11 games) Circle the Date: Sept. 26 at St. ThomasUSD had a league-high 10 selections on the Pioneer Football League preseason team, including a sweep of four special teams spots. The group includes leading rusher Adam Criter (921 yards, 12 touchdowns), center Maicah Talavou and punter Emiliano Sanchez back from the postseason first team, and there’s big-time experience with QB Dom Nankil and safety Ruben Lopez. If there’s concern, the Toreros face St. Thomas, Butler, Dayton and Drake on the road.
3. Drake Bulldogs
2025 Record: 8-4, 7-1 (1st) Stats Perform FCS Preseason Top 25 Poll: RV Preseason TRACR Rank (PFL Rank): 75 (3) Opta Average Projected Wins: 6.3 (11 games) Circle the Date: Nov. 7 vs. San DiegoFor the third consecutive season, the Bulldogs have a new coach, Matt Walker, who guided Wisconsin-River Falls’ 2025 Division III national championship team. Linebacker JR Flood and defensive back Garrison Codde ranked second (92) and third (84) on the team, respectively, in tackles. Quarterback Chase Spellman, a lefty, was last year’s season-opening starter, but only played in three games due to injury.
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2 weeks ago Craig Haley4. Presbyterian Blue Hose
2025 Record: 10-2, 6-2 (T-2nd) Preseason TRACR Rank (PFL Rank): 74 (2) Opta Average Projected Wins: 6.5 (11 games) Circle the Date: Oct. 10 vs. DavidsonPresbyterian’s 10 wins marked the program high since 2005, and new coach Matt Rahl served as the team’s offensive line coach the last two seasons (the Blue Hose are on a 14-2 run). The offense is starting over, although Marcello Coleman returns up front. On defense, the secondary is experienced with Ryan Largin and Noah Taylor.
5. St. Thomas Tommies
2025 Record: 7-5, 5-3 (T-4th) Preseason TRACR Rank (PFL Rank): 58 (1) Opta Average Projected Wins: 7.2 (12 games) Circle the Date: Sept. 26 vs. San DiegoThe Tommies, seeking their first FCS playoff bid, are 13-10 (10-6 PFL) over the last two seasons after going 25-7 (21-3) in their first three FCS campaigns from 2021-23. Their new QB will enjoy targeting WR Quentin Cobb-Butler (51 receptions, 772 yards, seven TDs) and tight end Patrick Wagner. The questions are on defense, which is revamped, and with LB Charlie Boucher as the team’s top-returning tackler.
6. Butler Bulldogs
2025 Record: 6-6, 4-4 (T-6th) Preseason TRACR Rank (PFL Rank): 94 (6) Opta Average Projected Wins: 5.2 (12 games) Circle the Date: Sept. 26 at ValparaisoBased off last year’s standings, the Bulldogs have the toughest league schedule as they play all programs except Stetson and Davidson (a combined 3-13 in league). But QB Reagan Andrew has rushed for 1,181 yards and 16 touchdowns over the last two years, and there’s plenty of strength in the trenches (OL Charles Mackley and DL Luke Green) and at linebacker (Mason Armstrong and Jackson Stratton).
7. Marist Red Foxes
2025 Record: 5-7, 3-5 (8th) Preseason TRACR Rank (PFL Rank): 103 (7) Opta Average Projected Wins: 5.1 (12 games) Circle the Date: Oct. 24 vs. St. ThomasQuarterback Sonny Mannino was named to the PFL preseason team, but he seeks to raise his career completion% (55.6) while he keeps targeting WR Lance Martinez, who was fifth in receiving yards in PFL games. The defense has standouts in S Chase Hatton (team highs of 89 tackles, four interceptions) and LB Nate Furrow (12 TFLs, 6.0 sacks).
8. Morehead State Eagles
2025 Record: 6-6, 4-4 (T-6th) Preseason TRACR Rank (PFL Rank): 121 (8) Opta Average Projected Wins: 3.2 (12 games) Circle the Date: Oct. 31 vs. DrakeDefensive end KJ Hardesty (46 tackles, 7.5 TFLs) and tackle Jake Rhodes will lock down one side of the line, which will allow LB Chris Johnson to fly in for tackles. Quarterback Bryce Patterson has the experience necessary to break out as a redshirt senior.
9. Davidson Wildcats
2025 Record: 2-10, 1-7 (T-10th) Preseason TRACR Rank (PFL Rank): 126 (10) Opta Average Projected Wins: 3.0 (12 games) Circle the Date: Sept. 26 vs. DrakeDavidson’s only league win was a stunner (Presbyterian). The defense is more experienced than the offense, returning its top five tacklers, led by S Hudson Altenburg (75) and LB Robert Lamar (62). Casey Bullock seeks a breakout behind center in a similar way to what WR Andrew Frazier did last season after he switched over from quarterback.
10. Stetson Hatters
2025 Record: 3-9, 2-6 (9th) Preseason TRACR Rank (PFL Rank): 128 (11) Opta Average Projected Wins: 2.2 (12 games) Circle the Date: Oct. 17 vs. PresbyterianThe Hatters, who last had a winning season in 2019, will face preseason No. 3 South Dakota State and No. 6 UC Davis. Their offense boasts a passing QB (Kael Alexander) and a running QB (Chris Stephenson), while LBs Shug Benley and Kyle Elphick return to anchor the defense.
11. Valparaiso Beacons
2025 Record: 2-10, 1-7 (T-10th) Preseason TRACR Rank (League Rank): 125 (9) Opta Average Projected Wins: 2.2 (11 games) Circle the Date: Sept. 26 vs. ButlerQuarterback Rowan Keefe is highly experienced but needs to limit the turnovers for Valpo’s struggling offense to get on track this season. The defense has stoppers in LB Anthony Feltrinelli (third in the PFL with 102 tackles) and DBs Nic Lendino and Mark Johnson.
Top photo, from left, via San Diego, Drake and Dayton Athletics. For more FCS football coverage, follow at X, Facebook, Instagram and Bluesky.
Pioneer Football League Predictions: Asking Who’s Best Draws a Lot of Raised Hands Opta Analyst.
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