Iceland’s E.U. Referendum, Explained ...Middle East

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Iceland's Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen are pictured in Brussels on Jan. 14, 2026. —Simon Wohlfahrt––Getty Images

The country initially applied for E.U. membership in 2009, but accession negotiations were halted upon a change in government in 2013. Then, in 2015, Iceland announced it "should not be regarded as a candidate country for E.U. membership.” However, the membership application was never formally withdrawn.

The E.U. is “looking strategically around. They're aware that the world is changing. The Arctic has increased focus now, and I think a lot of European countries, and the European bureaucracy in Brussels is aware, that they need increased flexibility for Europe to stay more modern,” she said. "This is where Iceland comes in."

The E.U. in June signaled a willingness to enlarge the bloc by opening the first negotiating clusters for Ukraine and Moldova.

The exact question being put to voters for a yes or no answer is: “Should Iceland reopen accession negotiations with the European Union?” 

What are "accession negotiations"?

Accession negotiations are the formal process by which a country and the E.U. set out the conditions for admission into the bloc.

Typically, before a country begins accession negotiations, all 27 member states must unanimously agree to open them.

Iceland and the E.U. would need to review the chapters that were already closed, but experts predict this would likely be a relatively quick process.

A European Commission spokesperson told TIME that if Iceland were to notify the E.U. that it wished to resume accession negotiations, the E.U. and its member states would “quickly determine how best to take the process forward, building on the work already done.”

Iceland is already deeply integrated with the bloc, with Bergmann describing it as being “at least three quarters inside the realms” of the E.U. The country “is already almost completely aligned with the E.U. on most of the issues that have been difficult for the accession of other countries,” he explains.

Iceland is also part of the Schengen Area, allowing people to travel without internal border controls between member states.

If and when a deal is reached, the agreement will be put to a second referendum for the Icelandic people to accept or reject.

If the majority of people vote “no” in the Aug. 29 referendum, accession talks with the E.U. would not resume, yet the country would likely remain closely tied to the bloc through its existing partnerships.

Why fishing remains a major obstacle to E.U. membership

“Fisheries have been the main stumbling block for Iceland's membership,” Bergmann says. “The political reality in Iceland is that no politician could ever advocate for an accessional treaty of Iceland that will not both practically and formally guarantee Iceland's control over its fishing grounds.”

Fisheries are covered under Chapter 13. That chapter had not been opened when negotiations were put on hold in 2013 and Iceland hadn’t submitted a negotiating position.

“What people outside of Iceland often do not get is how the political identity in Iceland plays out in domestic politics,” says Bergmann. “Oftentimes there hasn't been an understanding of this in Brussels, for example, around the fishing policies, where people think it's a practical issue, when it's a much bigger question and much more symbolic.”

Has Trump impacted Iceland’s E.U. debate?

Concerns mounted after Trump repeatedly referred to Greenland as “Iceland” during his speech at Davos in January.

“Obviously, all of this Greenland matter concerns people, right? It's a huge problem. The fact that we have leaders in the free world talking like this is an issue. It's a massive issue, and I know Icelanders are very concerned about it,” she said in a July interview.

Iceland is a member of NATO and has a long-standing Bilateral Defense Agreement with the U.S.

Furthermore, Iceland also does not have standing armed forces of its own.

“This pushes Iceland in the direction of Europe and makes for a new dimension to consider on the sort of accession question of whether the E.U. or European countries might become Iceland security guarantors rather than the U.S.,” insists Bergmann.

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