Most of the world's soybeans, sugarcane, oranges and coffee — as well as a big proportion of the world's cotton and corn — are grown in the areas with the most depleted aquifers, so the dwindling groundwater supply could have ripple effects for food markets around the world, including in the U.S.
Groundwater declines probably won't lessen total agricultural production in the next 10 to 20 years. "The concern is what happens if these trends persist for several decades," study first author Augusto Getirana, a researcher in the Hydrological Sciences Laboratory at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, told Live Science in an email. "Brazil is one of the world's major breadbaskets, so its water security has consequences well beyond the country itself."
The researchers fed the models measurements from 398 monitoring wells, satellite data showing tiny shifts in gravity resulting from groundwater changes, and information about the geology and land cover in different areas, among other datasets. AI reconstructed monthly groundwater level changes between 2002 and 2023 across different aquifers in Brazil at a resolution of about 6 miles (10 kilometers), Getirana said.
The results, which were published June 3 in the journal Science Advances, showed severe, persistent groundwater losses in parts of central, northeastern and southeastern Brazil — including portions of the São Francisco, Paraná, Southeast Atlantic and East Atlantic basins, which together cover 760,000 square miles (1.97 million square kilometers), or about 23%, of Brazil's land area.
A map showing Brazil's hydrological regions. (Image credit: Ribeiro Neto et al. (2016) Creative Commons (CC BY 4.0))"There is no single trend for the entire country," he said. "We found a clear geographical contrast."
Climate change is the culprit
Due to patchy monitoring, it is difficult to untangle and quantify the impacts of agriculture, industry and households on groundwater levels. However, the results revealed a substantial overlap between groundwater losses and areas with intense irrigation, urban and industrial demands, mining, land conversion and high well density, Getirana said.
Javier Tomasella, an environmental scientist and hydrologist at Brazil's National Institute for Space Research who was not involved in the study, agreed that the main cause of aquifer depletion in Brazil is climate change.
Two coffee plantations photographed in 2024 in Brazil's São Paulo state: one that uses an irrigation system (top left) and one that lacks water due to drought (bottom right). (Image credit: Tuane Fernandes/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
The findings suggest that if droughts intensify over the next few decades, major agricultural regions in Brazil could run out of water to grow certain crops. Groundwater provides a buffer when rainfall and surface water resources become unreliable, especially for agriculture and municipal water supply, Getirana said.
"This is the same type of progression already observed in intensively exploited aquifers such as the High Plains and [Central] Valley systems in the United States and aquifers in northern India and Bangladesh," Getirana said. "The water does not necessarily disappear overnight; it progressively becomes harder, less reliable and more expensive to access."
The total production of mostly rain-fed crops like soybeans and corn likely won't be affected any time soon, but the balance of these crops may change, Tomasella said. Conversely, the total production of irrigated crops such as coffee, sugarcane and oranges may decline, "but that depends on how droughts will evolve in the next two decades," he said.
"The United States alone relies heavily on Brazil for coffee and orange-juice imports," Getirana said.
Ripple effects
The study has implications beyond agricultural impacts, because aquifers are connected to river systems. Groundwater declines could cause rivers to dry up, and this would hit Brazil's hydropower network, which supplies 60% of the country's electricity, Tomasella said.
RELATED STORIESThe alternative to hydropower is burning fossil fuels and biomass to produce electricity, he said. This comes with huge carbon dioxide emissions, which would worsen climate change and further amplify Brazil's water issues.
"If droughts intensify, it might reach a point where you have to make very tough decisions," he said. "The real question is, 'Is this the new normal?' If this is the new normal, then we are in very deep trouble."
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