First, the popular incumbent Governor said he wouldn’t seek a third term. His Lieutenant Governor jumped in the race. So did his former Lieutenant Governor. Both have since dropped out, one felled by financial mismanagement in her campaign and one allegedly dispatched by a MeToo-styled scandal.
“The one thing that I've learned is to buy travel insurance,” Crowley tells me between campaign stops. The no-nonsense, disciplined executive of Wisconsin’s largest county is now the fledgling hope of national Democrats, who fear Hong, a far-left state assembly member, is doomed to deliver to Republicans the corner office in one of the few remaining battleground states. In fact, the biggest spender in the race thus far is an effort linked to the Republican Governors Association—to boost Hong.
But it’s going to be a tough lift. Tom Tiffany, a three-term congressman and the presumptive Republican nominee, raised more than $15 million, thanks in no small part to a $10 million transfer from the state GOP. By contrast, the Democrats’ top fundraiser, former Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes, picked up about $1.4 million before he was forced to the sidelines.
Polling this cycle once again is proving as reliable as a Ouija board. Just ask Wisconsin’s neighbor Michigan, which last week saw what seemed like a slam-dunk Democratic contest for Senate turn into a squeaker.
Hong, a self-described socialist, has ignited the interest of many of the state’s Democrats, while terrifying others who fear she’s unelectable. She’s recently made national news for walking back past social media posts that advocated abolishing the police and canceling Thanksgiving for "celebrating colonialism." ("I don't want to cancel it," she insisted last week. "I actually love it.")
One factor in his favor: the polls show the box with the biggest share of the Democratic vote in Wisconsin is the one for undecided voters. Heading into the final push, about half of Democrats hadn’t made up their minds. And the race’s constant churn—frontrunners dropping out, Crowley in then out, then back in with endorsements galore—has left the field decidedly unsettled.
But it’s not like he’s trying to counter Trumpism—or Hong—with a brash form of progressive fire. No, Crowley is casting himself as the kind of responsible pragmatist that fits the Upper Midwest ethos.
A.I. Data Center Backlash
Take the open question of data centers. Wisconsin’s cooler climate and hardened infrastructure make it an attractive location for the A.I. hubs. But it’s a clunker with the public, especially among Democrats. Marquette Law School’s polling has been instructive for candidates in the region. Among Wisconsin Democrats, the notion that the costs outweigh the benefits of data centers has grown from 56% in October of last year to 88% last month. Among all voters in Wisconsin, that shift has been from 55% to 76%.
Crowley’s position, meanwhile, is less restrictive but still skeptical.
It’s that careful pivot to prairie populism that has some Democrats—especially the moderates and centrists who are still raw after Michigan—hoping Crowley might claw his way to the nomination.
But a sense of safety is hard to come by in a race this unstable. After all, on July 8, when he ended his campaign, Crowley did so because he didn’t think he had a shot at the nomination. Over the next 10 days, constant calls and dangled promises from frantic Democrats convinced him a return to the campaign made sense. “I'll be honest with you, I feel like making the decision to get out of this race was just as difficult to get back in,” he tells me.
Back in it, he’s trying like he’s out of time. Because come Tuesday, he may well be.
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