We’re still in the middle of summer in the Chicago area, but the Farmer’s Almanac has already released its winter weather projections.
The publication, which says it has issued projections since it began to be published in the early 1800s, offers up projections on how the winter may unfold across the United States, including in the upper Midwest and the Chicago area.
According to its website, the almanac uses a “combination of sunspot cycles, lunar position, tidal pull, and historical pattern weighting,” though it cautions it does not publish its exact methodology.
So what is the publication saying will happen in the Chicago area?
According to the Farmer’s Almanac, the Chicago area, along with the rest of the Great Lakes region, could end up seeing temperatures around normal for most of the winter, though it also cautions the region could see “cold, snowy periods,” with frequent clipper systems and sudden cold snaps both in its projections.
Milder breaks are expected during the winter months, but the publication says those won’t be enough to boost temperatures above normal.
How accurate are the Farmers Almanac’s projections?
According to a 2010 study by the University of Illinois, the forecasts’ accuracy are around 52%, or essentially the same odds as a coin flip. The Farmers Almanac claims accuracy of around 80%, and says that while independent reviews put “actual accuracy somewhat lower, it’s still meaningfully above chance.”
One thing that could significantly impact winter weather in the Chicago area is an emerging El Niño pattern in the Pacific Ocean. That pattern is growing significantly stronger, and at this point the Climate Prediction Center believes there is a staggering 97% chance it will persist into the spring months of 2027.
What’s more, CPC officials believe the pattern could be “one of the largest” on the historical record, dating back to the 1950s.
El Niño patterns don’t always have the same impacts on weather in the Midwest, but according to the University of Illinois, those impacts typically lead to warmer and drier winters than normal in the region.
The Farmers Almanac is projecting wet and warm conditions in the south for the coming winter, and that does typically occur during El Niño patterns, according to the university.
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