The expanded Wild Card format has complicated things over the last few years when it comes to the MLB Trade Deadline. More teams are eligible for the postseason, meaning the number of teams trying to bolster their rosters, even if they don’t currently find themselves in a playoff spot, is higher than ever. We’re seeing the effects of that even now, with five days until the deadline arrives.
The Mets won’t be one of the teams bolstering their major league roster next week. They have been nothing short of a disaster this season, entering Wednesday with a 45-62 record and 10.5 games out of a playoff spot. Everything that can go wrong has gone wrong, leaving Steven Cohen and David Stearns with some tough decisions to make over the next week.
Despite their abysmal record, the Mets have a lot of talented pitchers on their roster, several of whom should be available in trade talks. With the Cubs desperately needing pitching help, a deal between the two teams makes perfect sense. Pat Ragazzo of Athlon Sports reported on Tuesday evening that the Mets have sent scouts to assess the Cubs’ minor league system, specifically the Double-A Tennessee Smokies. This reinforces the notion of these two teams being a good fit for a potential trade before Monday’s deadline.
Here are four pitchers that make sense in a potential deal to give Craig Counsell the pitching help he needs as the Cubs look to climb back into the NL Central race:
Clay Holmes
Clay Holmes is one of my favorite trade targets for this Cubs roster. He’s on the 60-day Injured List after fracturing his fibula in May. Holmes has already made two rehab starts, with his most recent outing coming on Tuesday in Single-A with the St. Lucie Mets, where he threw four scoreless innings with three strikeouts and two walks. There is some obvious risk involved here since he hasn’t pitched in a major league game in two months, but the fact it wasn’t an arm injury helps his case.
Last season, after signing with the Mets as a free agent, Holmes transitioned into a starting pitcher, a move that paid off in a big way. Holmes posted a 3.53 ERA in 165.2 innings, although his xERA was 4.33. As part of his transformation to a starter, Holmes made several additions to his arsenal, including a changeup, cutter, and four-seam fastball.
This year, Holmes tweaked that arsenal yet again, adding a curveball and dropping the four-seam fastball. He still uses his sinker the most (50%), although it’s actually one of his least effective pitches, with opponents owning a .233 AVG (.299 xBA) off that pitch. Nonetheless, Holmes was off to an incredible start before his injury, with a 2.39 ERA and 1.10 WHIP across his first nine starts. In those 52.2 innings, Holmes had a 55.3% groundball rate, among the best in baseball. His xERA of 3.93 does indicate a little luck going his way, but that’s still perfectly suitable, especially for the Cubs, who just need quality innings however they can get them.
Holmes’ ability to induce ground balls at an elite rate is possibly the most appealing reason that Cubs fans should want him on their team. The Cubs are the best defensive team in baseball, and it’s not particularly close. Their 48 OAA, 47 FRV, and 67 DRS are all the best in baseball. Putting Holmes in front of that defense is bound to produce good results, something we’ve already seen with former Met David Peterson.
Holmes is under team control through the end of this season, although he does have a player option worth $12 million for next year. The impending lockout and Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiations are sure to have implications on this year’s deadline, which will make it interesting to see how teams deal with options for next year in terms of possible trades.
The Cubs do have some connections to Holmes that could persuade him to sign an extension and stay on the North Side for the foreseeable future. For starters, Holmes has worked with Tread Athletics in the past, which gives him a connection to Tyler Zombro, the Cubs’ VP of pitching. Holmes also worked out with Ben Brown last offseason in Tennessee.
Luke Weaver
Looking past the rotation, Jed Hoyer will need to get reinforcements for the bullpen. Luke Weaver, who went from the Yankees to the Mets this winter, is a perfect fit. Weaver is having the best season of his career, which would make him costly in terms of a prospect return, but he’s well worth the price.
In 42.0 innings this year, Weaver has a 1.93 ERA and 0.83 WHIP with a 26.4% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate. He has allowed just one run since April 30, with only seven walks during that stretch. Weaver’s hard-hit rate has also gone down by 6.3% from 39.9% to 33.6%. The former first-rounder’s chase rate (33.4%) and whiff rate (29.9%) are also among the best in the sport.
Weaver is in the first season of a two-year deal with the Mets worth $22 million, which is relatively cheap given how effective he’s been. If the Mets are willing to move on from the 32-year-old, it only makes sense for the Cubs to come calling.
Devin Williams
Devin Williams joined Weaver in making the jump from the Bronx to Queens this winter, but the former is not faring quite as well as his teammate. In 34.2 innings, Williams has a 4.41 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. As rough as those stats may look, Williams has a 3.30 xERA and 3.11 FIP, so it’s not all negative. In true Devin Williams fashion, the 31-year-old is among the best in baseball when it comes to his chase rate (38.7%), whiff rate (35.0%), and strikeout rate (30%). His hard-hit rate of 30.1% is also in the 96th percentile.
The Cubs were reportedly willing to give Williams a three-year deal this offseason before he went to the Mets, which is a sign that they like his stuff. After losing him to Cohen and Stearns in December, Counsell has another chance to get his former closer for the upcoming pennant race in Chicago.
Williams is in the first year of a three-year deal worth $51 million, although deferrals have lowered the AAV to just $15 million. It would be expensive, but there’s a chance the Cubs wouldn’t have to pay a lot in terms of prospect capital since they’re taking that money off the Mets’ payroll.
Huascar Brazobán
An underrated option in Andy Green’s bullpen is Huascar Brazobán. Across 50.2 innings, Brazobán has posted a 2.66 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, both career-bests. He’s done an excellent job at limiting hard contact, as showcased by a 2.3% barrel rate and 84.1 mph average exit velocity that are both in the 99th percentile. As is the case with Holmes, Brazobán heavily relies on inducing ground balls, which he does 53.8% of the time.
One of the most intriguing aspects of this possibility is Brazobán being under team control through 2029, as the 36-year-old is currently in his first year of arbitration. It’s unknown if the Mets would move Brazobán, but they’d be foolish not to consider it.
Instead of trying to negotiate with several different teams to complete the puzzle that is this trade deadline, it’s never a bad idea to try and kill two birds with one stone. In this instance, acquiring Clay Holmes and one of the relievers listed above means that the Cubs should really only need one or two more trades to feel satisfied with their efforts. It may be pricey, but we’ve seen enough from this Cubs team to know that the offense is as good as anyone in the league; all they need is more pitching help to truly make a run in October.
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