Toto Wolff is refusing to get carried away. Despite Kimi Antonelli extending his advantage at the top of the Formula 1 drivers’ championship after another strong performance in Hungary, the Mercedes team principal is resisting the temptation to crown his young star as the title favourite.
Antonelli delivered one of the standout drives of the Hungaroring weekend, recovering from a grid penalty to claim third place and strengthen his championship position.
Combined with Lewis Hamilton’s difficult afternoon and George Russell’s troubled race, the Italian emerged from Budapest with a 50-point cushion over Hamilton and a 59-point advantage over Russell.
Yet for Wolff, the championship battle remains far from decided.
Wolff refuses to declare Antonelli the man to beat
Asked whether Antonelli should now be considered the favourite for the 2026 title, Wolff immediately urged caution, pointing to the unpredictable nature of a long championship campaign.
“It's too early to say. I'm superstitious, even though the gap is 50 points, there's so many races to go, a DNF for two can just swing massively,” Wolff said.
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With 11 races and two sprint events still remaining, the Mercedes boss knows momentum can disappear quickly — especially for a team that has already endured reliability concerns during the opening half of the season.
“We've not been great on reliability, so we just have to continue to maximise every single day from the Friday onwards to the Sunday and then hopefully at the end that will be enough.”
Mercedes’ reliability worries have also left Wolff preparing for the possibility of engine penalties later in the year. While teams typically try to take grid drops at circuits where overtaking opportunities reduce the impact, the timing of any potential penalty remains a delicate decision.
Monza dilemma looms for Mercedes
One possible option is Antonelli’s home race at Monza, where Mercedes could consider taking an engine penalty if circumstances force its hand.
The Italian Grand Prix arrives shortly after the summer break, giving the team time to evaluate the condition of its current power units before deciding whether fresh components are required.
Wolff admitted there was still hope of avoiding a penalty altogether, but acknowledged that strategic calculations would need to be made.
“In terms of engine penalties, I still very much hope we don't need to take it and we need to decide when that is, when we need to take one and which tracks,”** he said.
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The Mercedes boss revealed that Monza and Baku are both being considered, although the emotional significance of Antonelli’s home event makes the decision more complicated.
“There could be one that can be very special for Kimi, but on paper it looks like it's a good place to take an engine penalty, so we need to speak to Marco [Antonelli, Kimi’s father] whether we want to take an engine penalty in Monza,” the Austrian added.
“Baku is also one, maybe Baku. We take the pressure off [of Antonelli] in Monza to start from the back, it's just our reliability has been not good and whether we take a penalty or not, we shall see.”
A champion’s drive – but missed opportunity remains
Wolff did agree that Antonelli’s recovery in Hungary carried the hallmarks of a championship contender. Starting from seventh after his penalty, the 19-year-old fought his way through the field to secure a valuable podium finish.
However, true to form, Wolff still found reasons to believe Mercedes left points on the table.
Read also: F1i Driver Ratings for the 2026 Hungarian Grand PrixAsked whether Antonelli had produced a “champion’s performance”, Wolff replied:
“Absolutely. Lewis was the one to win this race Saturday morning and all of Friday. We come out of this with a few points gained, that's great. But I've been always a miserable guy with the glass half-empty. We could have had P2 today, or we should have had P2 and maybe in balance he got the penalty.””
For Wolff, the Hungary weekend was therefore both a success and a warning. Antonelli strengthened his grip on the championship lead, but Mercedes knows the fight is still fragile, with reliability, race weekends and the smallest margins capable of reshaping the title picture.
“So overall, maybe on Kimi’s side we need to go home and say that's okay in terms of the points.”
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