The overall shape of Nico Hoerner’s results this season has been exceptionally weird. It feels like a lifetime ago, but he actually began the year SCORCHING hot, and with way more power than usual over a not-insubstantial number of opportunities (first 107 PAs): .326/.402/.533 (158 wRC+). And while that was obviously beyond our realistic expectations for Hoerner, it did follow a trend that began in the second-half of last season, and aligned reasonably well with his personal age-related peak.
Didn’t hurt the narrative that he just signed a massive extension, either. Just sayin’.
And then the wheels, very uncharacteristically, simply fell off.
From April 22 through the end of the “first-half,” Nico Hoerner slashed just .202/.272/.259 (51 wRC+). He was still walking more than usual and striking out as infrequently as ever, but the hit tool that earned him $141 million in an extension had completely evaporated. And over an astounding 313 plate appearances, no less.
Now, certainly, we believe there was a lot of bad luck mixed in there. Namely, Nico Hoerner is a career .301 BABIP guy, but he had a .217 BABIP during that stretch … without significantly meaningful drops in his batted ball data or swing speed, or squared-up contact, or ideal attack angle.
Indeed, as Brett Taylor pointed out in a recent post on X, Hoerner’s Statcast page looks REMARKABLY similar to each of his last three, perfectly productive, offseason seasons.
Well, maybe the pendulum is finally swinging back in the right direction.
Nico Hoerner Hit Parade
Nico Hoerner has kicked off the second half of the season with four straight multi-hit games, resulting in nobody else having more hits than he does since the All-Star break.
Hits Leaderboard MLB (Since ASB):
Nico Hoerner: 10 Drake Baldwin: 10 Trea Turner: 8 Curtis Mead: 8 Junior Caminero: 8Everyone else has seven or fewer hits so far.
nico opposite field rbi-single ? pic.twitter.com/fzBNa8W9d9
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) July 18, 2026nico's turn! ? pic.twitter.com/2TFo6YzkNk
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) July 19, 2026With that barrage of balls finding grass, Hoerner has raised his batting average 14 points from .233 to .245 and his overall wRC+ from 78 to 85. And it’s not purely luck, either. His average exit velocity is up, his line drive rate has exploded to 50%, and he’s using the opposite field much more often (which, as we all sort of know, works well for his style of game). And while his expected batting average and expected slugging percentage aren’t sitting where his results are, they’re still significant: .379 xBA, .437 xSLG.
Obviously, four games is just four games. But given his importance to this team in the second half (and the next five years thereafter), tracking him closely feels especially important. So far, so good in the second half of the year.
And, hey, if you’re looking for a slightly longer (but still totally cherry-picked) stretch in which to store your confidence, you could go back to June 19 (107 PAs) to find Nico Hoerner slashing .290/.327/.390 (99 wRC+). Not elite. Not even his usual production. But a big step up from that really frustrating stretch from late April until then.
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