Andy Burnham is keeping his cards close to his chest.
The incoming prime minister has taken to politely signalling that he doesn’t want a chat to acquaintances while traversing the halls of Westminster with a cheery: “It’s all getting very real.”
And on Monday, it gets very real indeed. As Burnham enters Downing Street, policy and personnel will become clear. The appointment of his cabinet will present Labour with its first challenge to its newfound optimism.
Over the last three weeks, in conversations with his new MP colleagues, Burnham has been in walkie-talkie receive mode – with muted transmission.
“He’s been listening but not giving much away,” one MP reports from a meeting with the former Greater Manchester mayor. Another Labour MP confirms their chat was “just small talk”.
Others remark on a “ring of steel” guarding policy information. Discovering what Burnham thinks has frustrated the Civil Service and parliamentarians alike, as his praetorian guard of MP Louise Haigh and chief of staff James Purnell oversaw the policy planning and transition talks.
“So much is vibes: we are just drumming our fingers and waiting,” a Whitehall mandarin says. In No 10, legislation preparation has been paused ahead of new regime.
“We just don’t know how much he’ll differ from Sir Keir [Starmer],” a Government insider says.
It’s a question many are asking. This piece is based on dozens of conversations with Burnham allies and other Parliamentarians to try to answer how the new prime minister will be different.
A key ally expected to be rewarded with a seat in Burnham’s cabinet insists the difference between the two prime ministers “will be huge”, but when pressed won’t expand. “Not long to wait,” they trill.
Ask not what your country can do for you
Behind the scenes, one insider describes Burnham’s approach as “rather like” John F Kennedy, America’s 35th president. “Andy is impressed by what people can do for their country rather than the other way around,” they said.
Cabinet ministers who have approached him modestly, without demands for a job, are likely to do well.
Some have played a blinder. Shabana Mahmood, who was reluctant to leave the Home Office and Wes Streeting, who offered Burnham a smart analysis, will do well under the new regime. Darren Jones also received plaudits from allies of Burnham after he offered his thoughts without seeking a job.
“Others who made demands like [former defence minister] Al Carns or who briefed too strongly about their position like [Foreign Secretary] Yvette Cooper gave him and his team the ick,” the source said.
“You can imagine how getting the backing of George Osborne [on his Political Currency podcast with Cooper’s husband Ed Balls] went down with people like Louise [Haigh].”
Burnham at his most powerful
Monday marks the start of Burnham’s premiership. Before heading to Downing Street for a security briefing, staff meeting, and cabinet appointments in the early afternoon, there’s a ceremonial visit to “kiss hands” with the King.
Burnham will be at the peak of his power during those few hours. In contrast to usual negotiations, where senior ministers are offered positions and bargain with the prime minister according to their party standing, Burnham is expected to adopt a take-it-or-leave-it approach.
His team has been wrangling with a jigsaw of names, taking in different factions in the party, performance, and rewarding loyalists.
“Anyone who is in the current Cabinet by implication did not help Andy get into No 10. He has to get lots of new people in and therefore anyone who is offered a job will take what they’re given and be grateful,” a Government source said.
“It’ll be up to the individual Cabinet minister then whether they want the indignity of a minister of state job, with the possibility of working their way back up. Otherwise, they could be on the back benches until the election,” the source added.
“The biggest change will be in the Cabinet,” a Burnham ally adds. “A third of the Cabinet will go, perhaps up to eight of them. That is a massive change, probably the biggest change of senior personnel outside of a general election.”
As The i Paper exclusively revealed last week, Mahmood is expected to become chancellor after opponents of Ed Miliband successfully campaigned to stop his appointment to the Treasury. Already left-wing opponents of her politics have complained she will not be radical enough.
But for all the promotions, big beasts will disappear and backbenchers will remain unpromoted. “He’ll disappoint people who don’t get what they think they deserve,” a current Cabinet minister says, “but hopefully the optimistic mood will last longer than it did with Keir.”
Style of leadership
While Starmer ran a legalistic, process-driven approach to decision-making, Burnham will bring a more consultative and collegiate approach. His overriding aim so far has been to unite the party rather than sideline factions within it. A commitment to eliminate whipping has raised eyebrows among veteran party managers, dubious about how it might work in practice.
“Things will look and feel very different very quickly. The relationship with the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) will be infinitely improved, admittedly from the lowest base in history. The non-relationship between Keir and the PLP had real-world effects, it is something that caused instability,” a source advising the Burnham campaign tells The i Paper.
“How long that honeymoon lasts we will see. The PLP don’t become less mad just because there is a new prime minister,” the source adds.
“He’s demonstrated himself to be a rare beast within the Labour Party – a politician who accepts others have views different to his that might actually be worth listening to!” says Councillor Mark Roberts, Liberal Democrat leader of Stockport Council.
Starmer was frequently kind in private – a No 10 source tells of how he came in early to check on a junior member of staff with an ill family member – he could nonetheless be ruthless. Cycling through five directors of communications in under two years was at the top of the list, a clear-cut case of blaming the messenger.
Another No 10 insider said they dated knowing Starmer’s time was up to when he fired Foreign Office civil servant Sir Olly Robbins over the appointment of Peter Mandelson to Washington.
By contrast “Andy treats his people well and inspires loyalty”, one of his aides says. A former civil servant who worked with Burnham says he is “not a shouter” but “sometimes struggles to end meetings on time”.
“Sometimes these things just come down to emotional intelligence,” a minister reflects, pointing to Burnham’s championing of the Hillsborough victims and his relationship with his home city during the Manchester Arena bombing and during the pandemic.
“The main difference between Andy and Keir is that Andy is happy being a politician and being a leader,” says John McTernan, who worked for Tony Blair in No 10.
“No one likes being led by someone who looks like a hostage. The pessimism of Starmer and Rachel Reeves was infectious and I think Andy’s positivity will be infectious. Does it make it easier to achieve what he wants to? No. Does it make it easier for people to work with him? Yes. Everything flows from that,” McTernan says.
“The main difference is vibes, but that isn’t as superficial as you think,” adds a Labour MP. “Getting things done and getting the credit for them is key.”
Projecting
At the Makerfield by-election HQ, aides attached a large sheet of paper to the wall for MPs to sign when they came to help deliver leaflets. Little white space remained by the time Burnham was sent back to Parliament.
In the absence of a fleshed-out vision for government, MPs are doing the policy equivalent of writing their names on Burnham.
While younger MPs affected by high interest rates hope student loan reform will form a big part of Burnham’s early offering, other MPs have asked him to address the concerns of Waspi women. More still want him to sort out their high streets.
“My high street needs to look noticeably better by 2029. That’s how I’ll be judged at the election,” a Labour MP says. “But the issue is whether people make the correlation between money the Government has given via the Pride in Place scheme. That’s why we need good communication alongside the spending.”
The MPs’ wish list are only some items on Burnham’s in-tray. Unresolved political issues include SEND provision, university funding, overcrowded prisons, and planned budget reductions in government departments shortly in the run up to the 2029 election.
Devolution on steroids
A defining characteristic of Burnham-ism is its dedication to devolving power from London.
He has already committed to spending time in No 10 North in Manchester and could establish a new Department for the Regions to oversee the power handover.
“While previous Labour governments did lots on regional devolution and the Tories did a fair bit, such as the Northern Powerhouse, Keir did hardly anything”, a Burnham ally remarks.
“We are now going to see the regional agenda on steroids. Keir’s definition of north was north London. The government will be stretching its legs beyond the M25,” they add.
Economy
Burnham’s primary goal is to outline his economic policy, while perhaps acknowledging that Starmer and Reeves’s platform was more progressive than some within the PLP are prepared to allow.
He’s likely to pull Labour further left on issues like public control of transport, utilities and housing – a departure from Starmer’s fiscal caution and centrism. Immediate legislation will take Thames Water into public control and he’ll announce new drilling for oil and gas in the North Sea.
Concerned about jobs, the unionised left is having a renaissance. Endorsements from Gary Smith of the GMB and Sharon Graham of Unite arrive as Miliband’s net-zero target is watered down. Graham, who has spent the last couple of years lobbing rocks at Starmer, even nominated Burnham for the leadership.
Tax rises now appear inevitable; while Burnham has refused to rule out imposing a wealth tax, he’s also said people may have to pay “a little more” because of the state of the public finances.
Just how radical he will be on fiscal devolution is an open question for his new chancellor. How it dovetails with nationally mandated council house building is just one part of the puzzle.
Defence and foreign affairs
Where Burnham is likely to remain closer to Starmer’s project is on foreign policy. His commitment to Nato and Britain’s nuclear deterrent will remain “absolute” while the US will remain the UK’s “most important defence and security ally”.
Keeping Jonathan Powell on as National Security Adviser is a signal of continuity in the machinery, not just the rhetoric, as too is Varun Chandra, the trade adviser with a hotline to Scott Bessent.
But Burnham arrives at No 10 with no end in sight for the US-Iran conflict and a near-£5bn funding gap in the Defence Investment Plan, with the shortfall meant to be resolved at the next Budget.
The most likely divergence from Starmer is over Europe. Burnham wants to consolidate and speed up the existing UK-EU negotiations, deepening co-operation on illegal migration and economic security.
Can Burnham beat Nigel Farage?
Labour got rid of Starmer not just because of his mistakes, but because the fundamental question changed – who can beat Nigel Farage at the next election?
Labour MPs think they have made the right choice.
YouGov found 43 per cent think Burnham would make a better prime minister against 23 per cent for Farage, double the lead Starmer enjoyed the previous month.
For two vibes-based politicians, there’s one metric Burnham wins. BMG Research found Burnham wins the pint test: 34 per cent would rather share a drink with him vs 28 per cent for Farage.
But even if Burnham has closed the gap, the polling doesn’t show him clearly beating Reform even as Farage suffers from increased scrutiny of his financial affairs and a self-inflicted by-election.
Britain at a crossroads
The 2029 election will be just as important as 1979 in terms of how the country chooses a direction. Labour sees beating Reform as existential not just for the party but for the country.
For now, allies of Burnham want his party and the public to give him the benefit of the doubt, as one adviser makes clear. “Andy is aware there is very little patience from the voters, but the question mark point will come at six months, not six days,” they insist.
Some in Labour speak optimistically of Burnham as a new Harold Wilson, who won four general elections and kept Labour together despite deep splits over Europe, the economy, and left-right factions.
“Andy is very good at a quick conversational pivot,” an ally remarks. “You will talk to him; he’ll be laughing and joking about the football, and then he will turn on a sixpence. He’ll say, ‘But seriously’ and you know the hard conversation’s about to start.”
Making that pivot will be vital to Burnham’s success. The time for casual small talk with MPs is over. The serious work begins.
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